Chelsea (6-3-2) and Burnley (3-7-1) will face off today at 7:30 a.m. EST at Turf Moor Stadium in Burnley, England.
Chelsea is favored at a -209 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-125o / +100u) goals.
Let's get into my Chelsea vs. Burnley prediction.
Chelsea vs. Burnley Prediction
Pick: Chelsea -1.0 Asian Handicap (-125)
My Chelsea vs. Burnley best bet is on the away team to win by more than one goal.
Chelsea vs. Burnley Odds
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
2.5 -125o / 100u | -209 | |
| Burnley Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
2.5 -125o / 100u | +550 | |
Chelsea vs. Burnley Pick
Chelsea’s recent form suggests a significant improvement in performance and consistency compared to the start of the season. In the last five games, the Blues won four, conceding just three goals. Only Arsenal had done better in the previous five games in the Premier League.
Enzo Maresca’s squad enters the match heavily favored, with the latest Burnley vs Chelsea odds implying an easy win for the guests. The Clarets are among the worst teams based on the underlying metrics. Scott Parker’s team recorded the lowest xG (expected goals) after 11 games, while also conceding the most xGA (expected goals against).
Despite the occasional success, it's evident that the Clarets are struggling to stay afloat in the Premier League.
Currently, Enzo Maresca’s side is the most attacking team in the league. With an impressive 20.7 expected goals (xG), the Blues lead the league in this metric, underscoring their potent offensive capabilities. They have also taken the most shots on goal and created the most big chances.
Burnley's shaky defense is expected to face significant challenges when up against Chelsea's formidable attack, even on home ground. The combination of Chelsea's exceptional offensive strength and Burnley's defensive weaknesses makes the Asian handicap a strategic betting choice.
For this bet to pay off completely, Chelsea must secure a victory by at least a two-goal margin. However, if they win by just a single goal, the bet will result in a push, with the original stake returned.
Pick: Chelsea -1.0 Asian Handicap (-125, bet365)
Chelsea vs. Burnley Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Chelsea | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| 63.4% | 20.5% | 16.2% |
Projected Total Goals
| Chelsea | Total Goals | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| 1.87 | 2.68 | 0.82 |
Chelsea vs. Burnley Betting Analysis
The Premier League returns with an intriguing early kick-off as Chelsea travel to Turf Moor to face Burnley this Saturday.
The Blues have started to gather momentum, sitting third in the league, and is poised to capitalise on their recent form against a struggling Burnley side.
The Clarets delivered a disappointing display in their 3-2 loss at West Ham before the international break, allowing West Ham 3.06 xG (expected goals).
Scott Parker's men have found it challenging in front of goal, recording the lowest xG in the division at 8.3, despite scoring 14 times.
In contrast, Chelsea has shown a more robust defensive form, securing clean sheets in three of their last five league victories.
Our Burnley vs Chelsea predictions favour the visitors, with bookmakers assigning them a 65% implied chance of victory.
