European Soccer Best Bets, Projected Odds & Forecast for Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga, More (Nov. 5-7)

There wasn't much chaos outside of the Premier League this past week, as all of Europe's major clubs took care of business outside of Barcelona drawing with Alaves and Juventus continuing to struggle on the domestic front, losing to Verona 2-1 on the road in a Serie A matchup.

This weekend,  a few huge contests headline the card, with a big Milan derby at the San Siro between AC Milan and Inter Milan. There's also a potential high-scoring affair in Germany between RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund.

Even though we're only a quarter of a way through the season, La Liga and the Italian top flight look completely up for grabs, while Ligue 1 powerhouse Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich (Bundesliga) look like they're running away with their respective domestic leagues.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Bundesliga Projections

Best Bets

Wolfsburg vs. Augsburg

Wolfsburg has had a pretty difficult start to their campaign after finishing inside the top four last season. However, they recently switched managers to Florian Kohfeldt and since that change, their results have been much better. They've defeated Bayer Leverkusen on the road last weekend, plus they picked up a 2-1 victory in the Champions League on Wednesday over Salzburg.

Additionally, star striker Wout Weghorst has returned from injury, which is huge for their offense, considering he has a 0.66 xG per 90-minute scoring rate in eight appearances this season.

*(graphic via fbref.com)

The Wolfsburg defense that led them to the top four last year is still playing at a high level. They're only allowing 1.14 NxG per match, plus they rank second in shots allowed per 90 minutes and third in box entries allowed.

They should be able to shut down an Augsburg team that's going to be in the relegation battle all season long. They're currently in 16th place with a -10.49 NPxGD, having allowed the most expected goals in the Bundesliga this season.

I have Wolfsburg's spread projected at -1.33, so I think there's some value on their spread of -1 at -105 odds.

Pick: Wolfsburg -1 (-105)

Hertha Berlin vs. Leverkusen

Hertha Berlin boasts one of Germany's worst offenses. They’re only creating 1.16 xG per match, which is 15th in the Bundesliga. They’re also dead last in shots per 90 minutes, box entries and crosses completed into the penalty area. However, they’ve actually been a pretty good defensive team.

There numbers are a little inflated because they have a 5-0 loss to Bayern Munich and a 6-0 loss to RB Leipzig, but in their last four matches against Freiburg, Eintracht Frankfurt, Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hoffenheim they’ve only allowed 3.89 xG overall. And three of those four offenses are ahead of Leverkusen on xG, because this team is one of the biggest frauds when it comes to top-four contenders in all of Europe.

They’ve scored 23 goals off of 15.18 xG as well. They’re 10th in shots per 90 minutes and 16th in big scoring chances.  We saw a lot of that regression come against Wolfsburg this past weekend when they only created 0.61 non-penalty expected goals. 

I only have 2.34 goals projected for this match, so there's some value on the total staying under 2.5 goals at +110 odds.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+110)

Serie A Projections

Best Bets

Juventus vs. Fiorentina

Juventus looked much better in the Champions League action Wednesday in its match against Zenit. And for that reason, I think this is a perfect buy-low spot considering their form in the Italian top flight.

Juventus is due for some positive regression offensively, as they’ve created 19.01 xG, but have only scored 15 so far. Now, Fiorentina’s defense has been really good this season, as they’re first in shots allowed per 90 minutes; fourth in NPxG allowed;  and, first in box entries allowed.

However,  in their four biggest matches against Roma, Atalanta, Inter Milan and Napoli, they were thrashed and conceded a combined 9.29 xG in the fixtures. So, they’ve basically just dominated inferior opponents.

Also, Fiorentina, is not that great away from home, putting up a -2.95 NPxGD in six matches, while also only creating 3.61 NPxG in those games. Also, seven of Fiorentina’s 15 goals this season have come off of penalties or set pieces.

Defensively, Juventus is still pretty good, sitting sixth in NPxG allowed; seventh in shots allowed per 90 minutes; and, fifth in big scoring chances allowed, per fbref.com.

I have Juventus projected at -221, so I think this is a great buy-low spot on them at -160 odds via DraftKings and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Juventus ML (-160)

La Liga Projections

Best Bets

Celta Vigo vs. Barcelona

It’s now time to buy low on Barcelona.

Blaugrana is now the No. 1 team in La Liga in NPxG; first in big scoring chances; second in box entries; and, first against pressure. In their last three league matches, they've created 6.76 xG, but have only scored twice.

With Ansu Fati back in the lineup after missing the first part of the season, Memphis Depay actually has some help in the attack and they should be able to break down a Celta Vigo defense that has allowed 16.47 xG in 12 matches and sits 13th in big scoring chances allowed. 

The Celta Vigo offense hasn’t been that great this season, only creating 11.69 NPxG in 12 matches and was only able to create 0.61 xG against a Rayo Vallecano defense that yielded 2.97 xG to Barcelona last week.

Additionally, Celta Vigo is really bad versus pressure, as they’re 15th in pressure success rate allowed and Barcelona has the best pressure success rate and PPDA in the Spanish top flight.

I have Barcelona projected at -126, so I think there's some value on them at +110 odds.

Pick: Barcelona ML (+110)

Real Betis vs. Sevilla

Offensively, Real Betis has been outstanding this season, averaging 1.59 xG per match, which is the third-best mark in La Liga. They also are third in shots per 90 minutes, sixth in big scoring chances and third in box entries, per fbref.com.

However, Real Betis is in the middle of brutal schedule, as this will be their seventh match in 17 days. And during that time span, they've faced Leverkusen twice in the Europa League and Atlético Madrid last weekend. Now, they have to take on not only one of the best defenses in Spain, but one of the best on the continent.

This season, Sevilla is only allowing 0.76 npxG per match in league play, which is second overall. They’re also third in shots allowed per 90 minutes and first in box entries allowed. 

Offensively, Sevilla is also one of the best teams in Spain, as they're top five in NPxG, shots per 90 minutes and big scoring chances. They should be able to create a lot of chances against a Real Betis defense that is 17th in NPxG allowed.

I have Sevilla projected at +125, so I think there is some value on Sevilla Draw no Bet at -115 odds and will make them my top selection.

Pick: Sevilla — Draw No Bet (-115)

Ligue 1 Projections

Best Bets

Lille vs. Angers

Lille was really good and pretty much dominated the first half against PSG last Friday, but fell apart at the end. Then, they beat a really good Sevilla team in a 2-1 victory in UCL play Wednesday and this is another situation where I think they’re undervalued. Lille is averaging 1.56 xG per match, which is fourth in Ligue 1 and third in big scoring chances.

Now, this Angers defense has been really good and the main reason why they’re in the top half of the table. They’re only allowing 1.04 NPxG per match and sit top five in shots per 90 minutes and big scoring chances allowed. 

However, they’ve been in really bad form the past few weeks, as they only have one win in their last eight fixtures and their offense has really been struggling. Angers is 15th in NPxG; 16th in shots per 90 minutes; and, 18th in box entries. They’re also 18th in pressure success rate allowed.

So, I have a hard time seeing how they’re going to create high-quality chances against a Lille defense that's still playing at the elite level we saw last season, only allowing only 0.89 NPxG per match. 

I have Lille projected at -155, so there is a little bit of value on them at -130 odds on DraftKings in this meeting.

Pick: Lille ML (-130)