Premier League Betting Picks, Predictions, Preview: Projections & Best Bets, Including West Ham (Nov. 5-7)

Premier League Betting Picks, Predictions, Preview: Projections & Best Bets, Including West Ham (Nov. 5-7) article feature image
Credit:

Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: West Ham United standout Michail Antonio, center, celebrates a goal with his teammates.

The big headline coming out of the Premier League last weekend was a historic upset, with Crystal Palace pulling off a shocking 2-0 road win at Manchester City. The Eagles closed at +2000 moneyline underdogs.

A great afternoon for Crystal Palace! ⚽️#MCICRY pic.twitter.com/YSKpuB0FfT

— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) October 30, 2021

Chelsea took a big advantage in the title race, with Manchester City losing and Liverpool drawing against Brighton & Hove Albion.

This week’s fixtures are headlined by one of the biggest games of the season in the Manchester derby. Manchester City travels to Old Trafford on Saturday, where they will face Manchester United. There’s also a top-four battle Sunday, as Liverpool heads to London to take on a red-hot West Ham United side.

If you’re new to our soccer coverage, I will be providing my projections for every Premier League match, along with every other game from Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1, plus Champions League and Europa League when they’re in action.

If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Crystal Palace vs. Wolves

Crystal Palace Odds +145
Wolves Odds +205
Draw +220
Over/Under 2.5 (+135 / -160)
Day | Time Saturday | 11 a.m. ET
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I know Crystal Palace just beat Manchester City and is much improved this season, but I don’t understand why they’re slight favorites in this game. 

With Marc Guehi and Jokim Anderson as the center-back pairing, Crystal Palace is only allowing 1.11 NPxG per match, but some of the other defensive metrics are a little concerning. The Eagles are 11th in box entries allowed; 16th in crosses completed into their own penalty area; and, 12th in progressive passes allowed, per fbref.com.

Also, under manager Patrick Vieira, they have the most pressures of anyone in the English top flight, but sit 14th in PPDA and 17th in pressure success rate allowed. So, facing a team like Wolves that’s so lethal in their combination passing going forward to beat the press, it’s a defense I think will regress.

A sublime chip by @Raul_Jimenez9 🍟

🎥🇲🇽 pic.twitter.com/EEIfVvm7b6

— Wolves (@Wolves) November 2, 2021

Offensively, Crystal Palace hasn’t really done much going forward, as they’ve created 10.96 NPxG in their first 10 matches, which is 16th in the Premier League. They’re also 12th in big scoring chances and 17th in shots per 90 minutes.

So, how are the Eagles going create chances against a Wolves defense that’s second in NPxG allowed and only allowed six big scoring chances this season?

Also, Wolves doesn’t press a ton, but when they do they’re absolutely lethal, as their first in pressure success rate this season, while Crystal Palace is middle of the road against pressure. 

I have Wolves projected at +164, so I love their Draw No Bet line at +120 odds via DraftKings and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Wolves — Draw No Bet (+120)

Brighton vs. Newcastle

Brighton Odds -160
Newcastle Odds +475
Draw +300
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -110)
Day | Time Saturday | 2:30 p.m. ET
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We saw the difference Yves Bissouma and Enock Mwepu playing together made for Brighton in the draw with Liverpool. The Seagulls looked much better in offensive transition and, honestly, looked a lot like the team we all fell in love with last season. 

*pretends to be shocked* 😜

Our October Goal of the Month is… 🥁🇿🇲 pic.twitter.com/tgSuxHyJUR

— Brighton & Hove Albion (@OfficialBHAFC) November 3, 2021

This is another game where they should be able to just thrash Newcastle in transition, who has allowed 19.89 xG in 10 matches, 20 big scoring chances and 16 shots per 90 minutes. Those numbers are all of those are dead last in the Premier League.

They’ve also spent 312 minutes behind by at least one goal and when they’re playing from behind, they’re allowing 1.53 xG per 90 minutes. So, even though Brighton’s offense hasn’t been where it was last season, I think they’ll find it very easy to break down one of the league’s worst defenses.

Offensively, the Magpies haven’t been able to do anything going forward as of late. In their last four matches, Newcastle has only created 2.40 expected goals against Chelsea, Tottenham, Wolves and Crystal Palace.

Brighton is top 10 in NPxG allowed, but what I love most about this match is the fact the host has the third best pressure success rate along with the third most pressures. Newcastle is 18th in pressure success rate allowed and 20th in Offensive PPDA.

So, we could see a situation similar to last weekend where Newcastle plays plays two low blocks of four and prays for a couple of counterattacking opportunities. However, if Brighton scores first, the game is going to open up, which will allow the Seagulls to hit the Magpies on the counter often, given how successful their pressing has been. 

I have Brighton’s spread projected at -0.95, so I think there’s some value on Brighton -1 at +120 odds on DraftKings and will make it my top selection. 

Pick: Brighton -1 (+120)

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Leeds vs. Leicester City

Leeds Odds +180
Leicester City Odds +150
Draw +255
Over/Under 2.5 (-140 / +120)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Offensively, Leicester City has turned a corner. And despite not scoring against Arsenal, the club won the xG battle and created 2.10 xG in the match. Since Sept. 20th, the Foxes have created 9.16 xG in five matches, which is the third-best mark behind only Liverpool and West Ham. They will be afforded tons and tons of space going forward against a Leeds defense that’s 16th in NPxG allowed and 17th in shots allowed per 90 minutes.

Also, when Brendan Rodgers’ team  faced Marcelo Bielsa’s Peacocks last year, they scored five goals and created a combined 5.18 xG in their two meetings. So, for one of the hottest offenses and counterattacking teams in the Premier League going up against Leeds’ high press, I love the Foxes to put at least two goals in the back of the net and will back it at +100 on DraftKings in this spot.

Pick: Leicester City — Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+100)

West Ham vs. Liverpool

West Ham Odds +370
Liverpool Odds -145
Draw +320
Over/Under 3.5 (+125 / -155)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
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The Hammers are so unbelievably good, sitting fourth in NPxG, fifth in shots per 90 minutes and fourth in big scoring chances. However, what’s important for this matchup is they’re top five in O PPDA and pressure success rate allowed. Those are two stats Brighton is near the top in and we saw what they were able to do against Liverpool’s high press, which is only 12th in pressure success rate this season. 

A beautiful team goal finished off by Jarrod Bowen 😍 pic.twitter.com/c27cVe3nD5

— West Ham United (@WestHam) November 1, 2021

 

West Ham’s defensive modified pairing is maybe the best in the league because of how Declan Rice and Tomáš Souček play off each other. Souček is likes to get forward and press higher up the pitch, while Rice is more of the ball winner and the protection for the backline.

This season, Rice is third in the league in tackles plus interceptions, and Souček has the sixth-best pressure success rate for players who have more than  100 pressures this season, per fbref.com

The question is whether or not West Ham’s back line hold up against Liverpool’s attack, which wasn’t that great against Brighton this past weekend or against Atlético Madrid in Wednesday’s Champions League match. Sure, the Reds lead the league with 25.99 xG, but they only created 1.37 xG for the contest. 

Fabinho started in the UCL fixture and it looks like Thiago is going to be back as well, so Liverpool’s midfield issues defending in transition that we saw against Brighton should be put to bed with both of those guys returning. 

However, I do think this is a spot where Liverpool is overvalued. I only have the Reds projected at +109 odds, plus Infogol only has Liverpool at 50 percent, so I love West Ham +0.5 at +120 odds in this matchup.

Pick: West Ham +0.5 (+120)

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