Manchester United vs. Manchester City Odds, Pick, Prediction: Take the Favorite in Saturday EPL Derby

Manchester United vs. Manchester City Odds, Pick, Prediction: Take the Favorite in Saturday EPL Derby article feature image
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Anne-Christine Poujoulat/AFP via Getty Images. pictured: Manchester City standout Riyad Mahrez.

  • Updated odds for Manchester United vs. Manchester City list the Cityzens as a -140 favorite, with United +350 on the three-way line.
  • City is winless in its last four tries against its rivals, but Jeremy Pond is throwing out past results here.
  • Get his full Manchester Derby pick and preview below.

Man United vs. Man City Odds

Man United Odds +350
Man City Odds -140
Draw +330
Over/Under 2.5 (-170 / +135)
Day | Time Saturday | 8:30 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings, updated Saturday morning. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

When it comes to bitter rivalries, they don’t get much bigger than Manchester United facing Manchester City. On Saturday, the sides will meet at Old Trafford for their latest derby that highlights the weekend’s Premier League card.

The Red Devils enter this match fresh off a 2-2 draw against Serie A outfit Atalanta in the Champions League. Once again, it was Cristiano Ronaldo assuming the hero’s role.

He scored in stoppage time at the end of both halves, with the second tally coming at the 90+1-minute mark that secured a road point. Ronaldo’s latest heroics also pushed him out of a tie with Lionel Messi for most stoppage-time goals (eight) in UCL history.

Big players step up in the big moments šŸ˜ŽšŸ’„

āœØ @Cristiano #MUFC | #UCL pic.twitter.com/hCiHdiouXl

— Manchester United (@ManUtd) November 4, 2021

United’s draw came after a roller-coaster week that started with manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer nearly being sacked, but ended with him on the sideline for the club’s resounding 3-0 victory at Tottenham.

As for Manchester City, it rebounded from a stunning 2-0 loss to Crystal Palace last weekend with a 4-1 rout of Club Brugge in midweek UCL action. Phil Foden, Riyad Mahrez, Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus scored goals to get the Cityzens back on the right path ahead of this epic showdown.

Oddsmakers have installed City as a -145 road favorite, while United sits at +380 on the three-way moneyline as of writing. The draw is listed at +310.

Let’s take a look at this matchup and see where the betting value sits.

Ronaldo Keeping Solskjaer, Man United Afloat

To say the Red Devils were lucky to leave northern Italy with a point would be the definition of an understatement. But, when you have someone as world class and transcendent as Ronaldo, it becomes far more common for those moments of magic to occur.

The Portuguese star’s unbelievable month on the pitch has led him to a pair of club awards, as well as nominations for player and goal of the week in UCL action. And, if we’re being honest, Ronaldo’s brilliance has as much –if not more — to do with Solskjaer keeping his spot in the United sideline than pretty much anything else.

United Player of the Month āœ”ļø
United Goal of the Month āœ”ļø

October was just another month for @Cristiano šŸ¤·ā€ā™‚ļøāš½ļø#MUFC | @Play_eFootball pic.twitter.com/UNjWQGEM4Q

— Manchester United (@ManUtd) November 4, 2021

Absences have reared their ugly heads once again for United, who will be without midfielder Paul Pogba as he serves the second of his three-match domestic suspension. The biggest loss comes in defense, though. Raphael Varane, who just returned from a knock, will miss at least a month with a hamstring issue he picked up in the midweek UCL match.

Solskjaer can get away with Pogba being unavailable, but the void Varane creates is something he and the Red Devils will be hard-pressed to overcome when facing the dynamic, potent attack possessed by City. Needless to say, I think the hosts are in trouble in this iteration of the Manchester derby.

Man City Rebounds From Shocking Defeat

Unlike their rival and counterpart, things weren’t all hunky-dory for manager Pep Guardiola in City’s latest match in the English top flight. The Cityzens were handed that shocking defeat at Etihad Stadium, which ended their eight-match EPL unbeaten tear.

Wilfried Zaha and Conor Gallagher delivered the goals for the Eagles, who took advantage of a red card to Aymeric Laporte en route to the win. And just how much of an underdog was the visiting side? Crystal Palace closed at a whopping +2000 odds on the three-way moneyline at the majority of shops.

Phil Foden's range of passing on display šŸ†š Club Brugge šŸ˜Ž@PhilFoden | @ManCity | #UCL pic.twitter.com/9iw3itqXc4

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) October 28, 2021

However, like global powerhouses typically do, Foden and the Cityzens rebounded in style a few days after the setback with a thorough waxing of their Belgian counterparts. They dominated the expected-goals battle against Club Brugge, finishing with a 4.4-0.8 advantage in the advanced metric.

Guardiola’s men also dominated possession, maintaining control of the ball for 70 percent of the contest. They were almost just as good playing down a man for a chunk of the game against Crystal Palace, holding a 68-32% edge in possession. In their 17 matches on the season, not once has City been out-possessed by the opposition.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

It might surprise those that are not currently updated on their recent history, but City has put together miserable showings against its bitter rival as of late. The Cityzens are winless in the latest four meetings, plus they’ve been shut out in the last three league clashes.

However, I’m throwing past performances aside ahead of this tussle. City simply has too much depth and firepower for the Red Devils to comfortably deal with for 90 minutes. Throw in the gutting loss of Varane in the defensive third and I don’t see how the visitors leave without three points.

That said, I’m backing Manchester City at -0.75 on the Asian Handicap spread line at -110 odds via DraftKings and will make it my top selection. The Cityzens are unbeaten in 17 of their last 19 league matches away from the Etihad, giving me confidence in this wager.

I’m also sprinkling a little on the Same Game Parlay pairing a City win with the total going over 1.5 goals at +100 odds. There have been at least three goals in United’s last three league outings, which leads me to believe we can reach at least two in this spot.

I can’t emphasize enough how big Varane’s loss is to the Red Devils’ defense, so expect the Cityzens to get the job done and bag all three points.

Pick: Manchester City -0.75 (-110)

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