Euro 2020 Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets for Sweden vs. Slovakia, England vs. Scotland
Robin Jones/Getty Images. Pictured: England standouts Mason Mount, left, and Phil Foden.
- Our staff is back with their favorite bets on Friday's Euro 2020 slate.
- Sweden over Slovakia? England to triumph in a low-scoring affair? That's how our soccer analysts see things unfolding.
- Soccer analysts BJ Cunningham, Matthew Trebby and Jeremy Pond deliver their best bets below for these matches.
Things continue to roll on Friday in Euro 2020 action, with another trio of crucial group-stage matches taking place at the showcase event.
There are three games on the docket, including: Sweden vs. Slovakia (Group E); Croatia vs. Czech Republic (Group D); and, the much-anticipated meeting between the United Kingdom's England and Scotland battling in a Group D showdown at Wembley Stadium.
Our Action Network soccer analysts have you covered when it comes to your tournament needs, providing game previews, in-depth analysis and selections.
Handicappers BJ Cunningham, Matthew Trebby and Jeremy Pond have dished out their best bets covering two of these matches.
That said, let's take a look at their favorite picks on the schedule.
Friday's Best Bets
| ANALYST | PICK | ODDS | BEST BOOK |
|---|---|---|
| BJ Cunningham | Sweden ML (-121) | DraftKings |
| Matthew Trebby | England vs. Scotland — Under 2.5 (-108) | DraftKings |
| Jeremy Pond | England -1.25 (-141) | DraftKings |
Odds as of Thursday evening.
BJ Cunningham: Sweden ML (-121) vs. Slovakia
- Odds available at DraftKings
Despite winning 2-1 against Poland, Slovakia was extremely underwhelming in its opener. Poland out-created its foe in expected goals by a 1.76-0.49 margin, plus Slovakia had a man advantage for the final 30 minutes of the game.
Now, Slovakia is likely going to play very defensive like it did for most of the match against Poland, because all it needs is a point and it's moving onto the knockout stage.
The Slovaks didn’t give Poland too much trouble when it had the ball, because it had the fourth-lowest pressure success rate of any team in the tournament through the first round of matches. That should give Sweden some relief since Spain had the highest pressure-success rate of any nation so far.
Sweden had a very clear game plan against Spain, which was to park the bus and try to hitting Spain on the counterattack. And it almost worked. Now, the Swedes allowed its foes to create a lot of high-quality chances, but as we saw in the match ,Alexander Isak is a real threat going forward.
I think we’ll see Sweden play more on the front foot here, given the fact that Slovakia will be playing very defensive. They will be getting a couple of their attackers back this match, who missed the Spain match due to COVID-19 protocol, most notably Dejan Kulusevski, who is a fantastic young winger from Serie A powerhouse Juventus.
Also, Sweden did average more than two xG per match during Euro and World Cup qualifying, so it's capable of dismantling Slovakia’s defense.
I love Sweden to get all three points here and would play their moneyline all the way up to -135 odds.
Matthew Trebby: England vs. Scotland — Total Under 2.5 Goals (-108)
- Odds available at DraftKings
It’s rare nowadays to see a total in soccer listed as a coin flip, but that’s what we have here in the battle of the United Kingdom.
Scotland is coming off a 2-0 loss to Czech Republic that saw it register 2.31 expected goals. That number, though, was just 0.42 xG at halftime, and grew in a big way after Patrick Schick’s wonder goal gave the Czechs a 2-0 lead.
The Scots aren't going to be a chance-creating machine in this tournament. Scotland is going to be on the back foot from the start of this game against a far superior England team. The underdog won’t come close to that 2.31 xG, and I’d be surprised if they got more than 1.00 xG, in which case it doesn't have the quality up front to make those chances count and convert.
Meanwhile, England played a tight game against Croatia that saw it break through in the second half. The Three Lions registered 1.54 xG and focused on its defensive stability after taking a second-half lead.
England has a plethora of young attacking talent, but that’s not at the forefront of Gareth Southgate’s plan to win. It's not going to be some free-flowing, flashy team that creates chances left and right. The Three Lions will look to win 1-0 or 2-0 in every game.
No doubt, the atmosphere will be electric for this game at Wembley. I just don’t see it translating into many goals.
Jeremy Pond: England -1.25 (-141) vs. Scotland
- Odds available at DraftKings
Much like my pick of Belgium to defeat Denmark on Thursday's card, there is really no reason to go into some spiel to drop all the reasons why England will defeat fellow UK nation Scotland in the day's nightcap at Wembley.
The only question is by how many goals the Three Lions will triumph by in this meeting that could give them a stranglehold on Group D affairs. England played an extremely tight game against Croatia in its opening contest, squeaking out a 1-0 victory via a pretty Raheem Sterling goal.
However, manager Gareth Southgate's side only finished with 0.9 expected goals, according to FBref.com, but I think that was more due to the fact Croatia utilized a defensive-minded game plan that almost worked. Now, England faces a Scotland outfit that won the xG (1.8-0.9), shots (17-10) and possession (56%-44%) battles against Czech Republic, but suffered a 2-0 setback.
Bottom line, England is going to come out on its front foot with an array of attacking options Scotland won't have an answer for in this spot. Expect Harry Kane and the Three Lions to dominate their weaker rivals, and cruise to either a 2-0 or 3-0 victory.
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