Liverpool vs Leicester City Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Liverpool continue their march back up the table when they host Leicester City at Anfield.

The Reds got things back on track out of the World Cup break, rebounding from their Carabao Cup loss to Manchester City by beating Aston Villa 3-1 on the road. Liverpool are still sitting in sixth place and are five points out of the top four, so a win is crucial here, especially with a road trip to Brentford on deck.

Leicester were very poor out of the break, getting blown out at the King Power Stadium 3-0 by Newcastle. The Foxes were at the bottom of the table at one point, but they have made their way out. Nonetheless, they are in danger of falling back down if they drop all three points here.

Liverpool Haven't Gotten Results Despite World Class Attack

Liverpool’s struggles have really put a damper on how good their offense has been. The Reds are averaging 1.79 npxG per 90 minutes, they have created the most big scoring chances in the Premier League and they’re averaging 39.3 touches in the penalty area per 90 minutes.

They do have some injury concerns for this match, as Diogo Jota, Roberto Firmino and Luis Diaz are all going to be out due to injury, but their main striker Darwin Nunez has the second highest xG per 90 minutes in the Premier League and Mo Salah is starting to find his form, as he's scored seven times in his last seven appearances.

Liverpool’s defense has been incredibly shaky this season, as they’re allowing 1.26 npxG per 90 minutes, which is 10th in the Premier League. The reason for that is because they’re allowing far too many high quality chances. The Reds have allowed 17 big scoring chances this season. Plus, Alisson is running ridiculously hot in net right now, as he leads the Premier League with a +8.3 post shot xG +/-. 

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Leicester Faltering Against Quality Sides

Leicester's defense has really struggled this season, as they currently sit 17th in npxG allowed per 90 minutes. Danny Ward has been a big reason why their defense has been as bad as it's been. He is the fourth-worst goalkeeper in the Premier League in terms of post shot xG +/- at -3.3.

Their defense tends to struggle when they have to play good competition. Against the top half of the table this season, Leicester are allowing 1.81 xG per 90 minutes versus only allowing 1.2 xG per 90 minutes against the bottom half of the table.

They are top five in offensive PPDA, but when Leicester have to face solid pressing teams, they haven’t fared very well. Liverpool’s high press doesn’t have the same bite or intensity that it had last season, but they’ve still forced the third-most high turnovers. Leicester are also allowing 1.67 xG per 90 minutes when playing from behind this season, so this could get out of hand if they go behind.

Going into the break, Leicester were running well offensively. Since September 4th, the Foxes have scored 19 goals off of 12.5 xG, so they are still due for some negative regression. 

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Liverpool vs. Leicester City Pick

This has a Liverpool blow out written all over it. The Reds' offense has again been one of the best in the Premier League and their ability to create a ton of chances with a lead makes this the perfect opportunity to bet them to win by a decent margin here.

I have Liverpool's spread projected at -1.81, so I am going to chase a bigger price and take Liverpool -2.

Pick: Liverpool -2 (+140)