MLS fans and bettors have seen a little bit of everything as we enter Week 11 of the 2019 season.
Home teams have won just over 50% of games but for a loss of -3.77 units on the moneyline, while road teams have won just 26% of matches for +10.25 units.
2019 MLS Season Results
Six underdogs of +200 or higher have claimed victories in the past week including Vancouver (+260), Toronto FC (+240) and Atlanta United (+230) to propel the visitors' results.
There have been three or more goals scored in 65 of 123 matches this season, but a big bulk of those came early in the year. Over the past month, unders have had the upper hand and sportsbooks have adjusted accordingly.
MLS Week 11 Betting Odds and Breakdown
This weekend there are just two over/unders are listed at 2.5 (FC Cincinnati-Montreal and FC Dallas-NY Red Bulls) while the rest are currently at 3 goals.
Home teams are favored in all 12 matches, though just three of them are odds-on favorites (Atlanta United -225, Chicago -110 and Seattle -130).
MLS Betting Picks, Week 11
Vancouver-Portland
- Time: Friday, 10 p.m. ET
- TV: TSN1
The last five matches between Vancouver-Portland have ended 2-1, with the Whitecaps winning three and Timbers winning two. Goals should continue on Friday night as the over has hit in eight straight away matches for Portland.
The Timbers have been hot, winning three straight overall after a very rough start to the season, while the Whitecaps have lost just once in their last four.
Public bettors have been spread out on all three moneylines and I like the value on Portland at +175 or better to earn their fourth straight victory.
FC Cincinnati-Montreal
- Time: Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
- TV: TSN1
FC Cincinnati are in really bad shape and have lost five straight matches without scoring a single goal. They also just fired manager Alan Koch due to "a series of recent issues and a team culture that had deteriorated," so there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding the club right now.
Montreal are heading in the opposite direction with 20 points through 12 matches, yet find themselves as +215 underdogs in Cincinnati.
Public bettors have been hammering the Impact moneyline, but odds haven't moved, indicating that FC Cincinnati could get a result here. It may not be all three points, but I like the value on the draw at +245 or better.
FC Dallas-New York Red Bulls
- Time: Saturday, 2 p.m. ET
- TV: Univision
The Red Bulls had to play Wednesday night, a 2-1 home loss to Montreal, and now have to travel to FC Dallas as +280 underdogs.
New York haven't won on the road in their last six games and FC Dallas are one of the strongest teams in the Western Conference. I'd be playing FC Dallas or the draw here, but current moneylines are pretty spot on.
Toronto FC-Philadelphia
- Time: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET
- TV: TSN1
Philadelphia will look to reverse fortunes against a Toronto FC side they've earned just one point against since 2016. The Union have been outscored 16-4 in those meetings with five losses by multiple goals.
Despite the poor head-to-head form, Philadelphia has some great value at +260 odds to pick up a victory on Saturday afternoon.
Toronto FC striker Jozy Altidore (hamstring) is still doubtful and they managed zero shots on target in Wednesday's 2-0 loss at Atlanta United. Meanwhile, the Union rested during the week after two straight home games, and the Eastern Conference leaders just shouldn't be priced this high.
Nearly 70% of bets is on Toronto FC to win but this is a prime opportunity to fade the public and back Philadelphia at a solid price.
LA Galaxy-NYC FC
- Time: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
The Galaxy are in a tough scheduling spot after traveling to Columbus Wednesday night and now playing back home on Saturday afternoon against NYC FC.
New York have picked up three straight wins head-to-head but have had a weird start to the 2019 season, losing just once while drawing six times and winning three.
All of the line movement has been toward NYC FC from +270 to +245, but I can't quite commit to the road dogs here based on their unpredictability.
Columbus-LAFC
- Time: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN+
The Crew will try to sweep both LA teams within a span of four days, but it'll be tough considering LAFC are the top team in the league and didn't have to play a midweek match like Columbus did.
As expected, public and sharp bettors have aligned to take LAFC, shifting their moneyline from +180 to +165. This could end up being one of the most lopsided-bet games of the weekend, but LAFC isn't a sure thing after winning just once in the last four games.
If anything, I'm leaning toward the draw at lofty +275 odds, but still don't love the value at that price.
New England-San Jose
- Time: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN+
Good luck if you're betting the Revs, because they look completely lost after dropping consecutive matches by five-goal margins. Their second-half performances have been abysmal and ownership decided to fire head coach Brad Friedel instead of taking any blame themselves.
I grabbed San Jose early in the week at +260 but give me the Earthquakes at anything above +200.
Seattle-Houston
- Time: Saturday, 10 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN+
The Sounders and Dynamo both sit on 19 points apiece with games to spare against the LA clubs ahead of them in the Western Conference standings.
Each team has lost just once this season, and it happened on the same weekend against an LA squad: Seattle dropped a 4-1 game against LAFC on April 21 and Houston fell 2-1 at LA Galaxy on April 19.
The biggest question for Saturday night is whether the Houston Dynamo can perform on the road. They've played just two games away from home so far, fewest in MLS.
Meanwhile, the Sounders have always been a difficult team to beat at CenturyLink Field and they're undefeated there in 2019. Seattle is currently priced at -130, which is a fair assessment, and I'd think about biting if the number comes down to the -110 range.
D.C. United-Sporting Kansas City
- Time: Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: Fox Sports 1
Don't expect to see many goals in this one based on recent history, as the clubs have combined for just four goals in the last five head-to-head meetings.
D.C. United have also been shutout five times already this season but Sporting KC have been leaking goals everywhere, conceding 3+ goals in five matches already including CONCACAF Champions League.
The total for Sunday's match opened 3 (u-120) and hasn't budged at all, and I'd expect a tight affair that ends 1-0 or 1-1.
Value Plays
MLS Season Record: 9-18-2, -3.40 units)
- Portland (+195) at Vancouver
- Philadelphia (+260) at Toronto FC
- San Jose (+260) at New England
- FC Cincinnati-Montreal Draw (+245)
