MLS Week 10 Odds, Betting Preview: Sharp Money Hitting Houston, Atlanta United
Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston’s Oscar Garcia
- The bulk of MLS Week 10 action takes place Saturday, but there's been heavy betting activity for Friday (Colorado-Vancouver) and Sunday (Sporting Kansas City-Atlanta United).
- We break down the entire board to find the biggest line moves, public bets, sharp money and more.
Week 9 was an anomaly in MLS history: Unders went 9-1-2 and only five teams scored multiple goals. Despite the low-scoring weekend, we saw perhaps the wildest match of the season — a 4-4 draw between Sporting Kansas City and New England Revolution.
LAFC couldn’t beat Seattle in the marquee matchup despite being a man up for 70-plus minutes. They missed a tons of open chances in the second half and blew an opportunity to be the first squad to eight wins this season.
Here’s a look at moneyline results for 2019 before diving into the betting board for Week 9.
We’re more than a quarter into the 2019 MLS season and all three moneyline bets are hovering around the break-even point. Draws made a nice comeback in Week 9 while road teams maintained a slight edge in terms of profitability.
MLS Week 10 Odds and Betting Breakdown
Totals keep dwindling as the season progresses with four over/unders at 2.5 for Week 10.
LAFC (-230) and Philadelphia (-165) are the biggest favorites, and no other teams are listed higher than -120.
Here are betting previews and value plays for some of this weekend’s notable matches.
Colorado-Vancouver: Friday 9 p.m. ET on TSN
Most people don’t really care about a Friday night match between the two lowest point-getters in the league, but sharp bettors are excited.
Colorado recently made a coaching change from Anthony Hudson to Conor Casey after a winless start to the season, and Friday’s home match is promising with the home side -120 favorites to defeat Vancouver.
Early sharp money clearly feels confident in the managerial switch since the Rapids have improved from +120 to -115 since odds opened. Just 43% of all wagers have come in on Colorado, another strong indication that sharp bets are responsible for the move.
Oddly enough, these are the only two clubs in MLS that don’t have multiple wins this season, but I believe the Rapids will finally pick up their first against the Whitecaps.
At any number -120 or better, I like the value on Colorado grabbing all three points.
NY Red Bulls-LA Galaxy: Saturday 2 p.m. ET on ESPN
Goals should be expected in this one as the two have combined for 3.8 goals per game in the past five head-to-head meetings. Zlatan Ibrahimovic wasn’t joking when he said he wanted to win MVP and break all the records this season, already finding the back of the net on eight occasions.
There hasn’t been a ton of betting action yet, although it should be noted that the Galaxy are responsible for 78% of the early money despite just 30% of the wagers.
Houston-FC Dallas: Saturday 4 p.m. ET on Univision
The Texas Derby has finished in a draw in four of the last five encounters, yet bettors are avoiding the tie for Saturday.
Houston and FC Dallas have been two of the hottest clubs in 2019 and sharp money has sided with the Dynamo to win at home, shifting odds from +115 to -120.
D.C. United-Columbus: Saturday 8 p.m. ET on TSN2
Sharp money has hit the Crew to win/draw on the road, causing multiple line moves around the market. So far fewer than 10% of bets are on Columbus; however, they’ve accounted for nearly half the money wagered.
We’ve also seen considerable action on the under, dropping from 3 to 2.75 and down to 2.5 at some sportsbooks. This could be a 1-0 or 1-1 type of match, especially considering how low-scoring MLS matches have been over the past 10 days.
Minnesota United-Seattle: Saturday 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+
The Sounders began the year as one of the strongest clubs in MLS but have struggled in recent weeks due to injuries and suspensions. Minnesota United have been trending in a positive direction, though they did just trade captain Francisco Calvo (defender) to Chicago, so that could affect the team this weekend.
There’s been a slight line shift toward Seattle (+220) but it’s hard to decipher whether it’s sharp money or just an overall market reaction. Right now I’m leaning toward the draw, though I’m not fully convinced yet.
Sporting KC-Atlanta United: Sunday 9 p.m. ET on FS1
In the last matchup of the weekend, sharp money has hit Atlanta United multiple times and the road side is now +220 after opening at +235.
After a slow start to the year, defending champions Atlanta United have won two of three, albeit they were against the Revolution and Rapids. They’ve conceded just eight goals through the first seven matches — an impressive defensive record despite struggling offensively.
Sporting KC should be recovered from an early busy CONCACAF Champions League schedule, but they haven’t found their form yet this year. I’m going to wait to see where this line ends up, and will ultimately be betting Atlanta United at some point.
Value Plays (MLS Season Record: 8-17-2, -4.65 units)
- Colorado (-115) vs. Vancouver
- Atlanta United (+225) at Sporting KC