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Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Projections: Our Best Bets, Featuring Wager From Leicester City vs. West Ham United

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Projections: Our Best Bets, Featuring Wager From Leicester City vs. West Ham United article feature image
Credit:

Ian MacNicol/Getty Images. Pictured: West Ham United standout Michail Antonio, right, celebrates a goal.

The Premier League midweek slate has been completed, with little drama to show after the matches.

However, there was one big upset, as Southampton scored twice in the final 10 minutes to stun Tottenham at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Rinse and repeat 😏@Prowsey16pic.twitter.com/9OY9A7qVEz

— Southampton FC (@SouthamptonFC) February 10, 2022

This week doesn’t feature the most appetizing slate of games, as none of the top seven teams are playing against each other. However, there is still some betting value on the board.

If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here. You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Man United vs. Southampton

Man United Odds -165
Southampton Odds +450
Draw +320
Over/Under 2.5 (-140 / +120)
Day | Time Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

This is a really interesting matchup for Manchester United, who probably should have gotten all three points against Burnley on Tuesday at Turf Moor.

The Red Devils are starting to improve under manager Ralph Rangnick, but this is a tricky matchup for them, even if it’s at Old Trafford. That’s because because Southampton played incredibly well against Spurs on Wednesday, smashing them in the first half and ended up winning the expected-goals battle by a 1.9-1.6 margin.

The Saints also outshot Tottenham, 23-10, with a whopping 10 shots on target in the road victory.

Southampton presses at one of the highest rates in the league and sits sixth in PPDA, per understat.com. United hasn’t really faced a team yet under Rangnick that’s going to press them at the rate Southampton will. The closest would be West Ham United or Brentford, and in both of those matches, United allowed a pressure success rate around 32%, which is above the EPL average.

Southampton has forced the third-most high turnovers in the league, so I think United might have some trouble moving the ball up the pitch.

The Red Devils have performed better at home than they have on the road, but it’s not drastically better because they only have a +3 xGDiff in 11 Premier League matches at home this season.

The biggest thing with Southampton is they have to limit big scoring chances. They’ve allowed the third most this season, but the Saints are seventh in shots allowed per 90 minutes. Also, manager Ralph Hasenhüttl has tinkered around with playing a 3-5-2 formation to give them some more tactical flexibility to play five at the back if needed.

United is the worst team in the league against set pieces, allowing 9.2 xGA this season, while Southampton has scored eight goals off set pieces and have the best free-kick taker in the league in James Ward-Prowse.

I only have Manchester United projected at -125, so I like Southampton getting +1 at -115 odds on the spread line and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Southampton +1 (-115)


Brentford vs. Crystal Palace 

Brentford Odds +165
Crystal Palace Odds +200
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (+135 / -160)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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If there ever was a match where drastic home and road splits came into effect, this would be the game.

Crystal Palace is one of the worst EPL teams facing pressure, ranking 15th in Offensive PPDA, while Brentford is a good pressing team that ranks eighth in PPDA, and has forced the fourth-most high turnovers in the English top flight. 

Now, Brentford is in terrible form. The Bees have lost six consecutive matches, but their performances before the game against Manchester City were encouraging. And that’s especially for their offense, which created 2.2 xG against United and 1.3 xG against Wolves, but couldn’t find the back of the net.

When these sides met way back in the beginning of the season it was a cagey 0-0 draw, but Brentford was the better side with 24 shot-creating actions to Crystal Palace’s 12, plus it had a 41.3% pressure success rate, per fbref.com.

That said, I like the Bees playing on home soil via the Draw No Bet wager at -115 odds.

Pick: Brentford — Draw No Bet (-115)

Leicester City vs. West Ham 

Leicester City Odds +190
West Ham Odds +145
Draw +245
Over/Under 2.5 (-145 / +120)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

West Ham’s offense has been somewhat lost in their last two EPL matches, creating only 0.3 xG against Manchester United and 0.7 xG against Watford in Tuesday’s game. However, this a perfect spot for them to “get right” against one of the worst EPL defenses.

Leicester is allowing 1.82 xG per match, 16.1 shots per 90 minutes and 1.5 big scoring chances per contest. All of those are in the bottom five in the Premier League. It gets worse when they have to face the top seven teams, because the Foxes are conceding 2.46 xG and 2.5 big scoring chances per game.

Also, not surprisingly, Leicester has the worst home defense in the Premier League, yielding 1.85 xG per match. Thursday’s match against Liverpool was a perfect encapsulation on how bad their defense has been.

*(graphic via infogol.net)

On the other hand, Leicester is used to playing in these type of high-scoring meetings now, because its offense has been able to somewhat mask the defensive problems.

Since Nov. 20, when Leicester suffered a 3-0 shutout loss to Chelsea and marked the first real sign of defensive trouble, matches involving the club are averaging a whopping 4.0 xG overall.

I have 3.39 goals projected for this match, so I love the total clearing 2.5 goals at -145 odds and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-145)

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