Spain vs. Poland Odds, Pick, Betting Prediction, Preview: Will Euro 2020 Match Be Closer Than Market Expects? (June 19)

Spain vs. Poland Odds, Pick, Betting Prediction, Preview: Will Euro 2020 Match Be Closer Than Market Expects? (June 19) article feature image
Credit:

Aitor Alcalde – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images. Pictured: Poland star Robert Lewandowski.

  • Spain is a huge favorite over Poland in a Euro 2020 Group E match Saturday in Seville (3 p.m. ET, ESPN).
  • La Furia Roja dominated every aspect of its Euro 2020 opener against Sweden execpt the scoreline, settling for a disappointing scoreless draw.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down Spain vs. Poland and gives his pick and preview below.

Spain vs. Poland Odds

Spain Odds -278
Poland Odds +800
Draw +410
Over/Under 2.5 (-127 / +104)
Day | Time Saturday | 3 p.m. ET
TV ABC
Odds updated Friday evening via DraftKings.

Countries looking for their first Euro 2020 win hit the pitch Saturday when powerful Spain takes on Poland in the Group E showdown.

This match is effectively a “home” game for La Furia Roja, who will be playing at Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla in Seville. That makes it an even tougher situation for Poland, which sits at a whopping +810 odds to win this game outright on the three-way moneyline.

Obviously, this is a huge fixture for both nations. Spain, which entered the European showcase as one of the top contenders, would love to get a grip on the group after a dismal scoreless draw against Sweden in its opener. As for Poland, it’s looking to rebound off a 2-1 loss to Slovakia and needs points to have any shot at reaching the knockout round.

Let’s take a look at these combatants and see where the betting value sits entering this interesting contest.

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Offensive Issues Saddle Spain in Opening Draw

If you looked at the advanced metrics and box score from Spain’s debut match against Sweden, you’d probably assumed it cruised to a 2-0 or 3-0 win without any issues whatsoever.

Well, it goes without saying that you would have been grossly incorrect after a dominant performance from La Furia Roja ended in a scoreless draw and just one point entering this meeting with Poland.

The Spaniards dominated the Swedes from start to finish and it wasn’t even close. Manager Luis Enrique’s crew won the battle of expected goals, holding a 1.9-1.1 xG advantage. They held a whopping 17-4 edge in total shots, including 5-0 in shots on target.

Perhaps the most glaring statistic came in the possession column, where Spain had the ball a stunning 85 percent of the time. Needless to say, those are some absurd numbers to put up and not get at least a goal in the process.

Now, after blowing an opportunity to snatch all three points, the Spaniards are in need of a top-notch effort to even itself with the Swedes, who moved to four points in group play with Friday’s 1-0 victory over Slovakia.

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Underdog Poland Already Has Back Against Wall

This clearly isn’t the situation star striker Robert Lewandowski and his teammates thought they’d be in through one match in this competition. Surely, they anticipated getting the win — or a draw at the absolute worst — against the lesser-talented Slovaks.

However, a truly bad tackling decision by veteran defensive midfielder Grzegorz Krychowiak led to his second caution of the match and subsequent red card in the 62nd minute changed the shape and direction of the match. With the score all square at 1-1 at the time of Krychowiak’s ejection, Slovakia scored seven minutes later to tally what would turn out to be the game winner.

Like Spain, Poland was the clear winner in the statistical categories. The Polish side held a 1.3-0.3 xG advantage over their opponents, plus it finished with a 58%-42% edge in ball possession.

Poland was able to get the ball into the penalty area on a consistent basis, but was unable to finish off its chances. The Polish wound up getting off 23 crosses in comparison to Slovakia’s minuscule three crosses overall.

Bottom line, Lewandowski is going to have to carry this group if it wants to get a positive result in this spot. Arguably the top striker in the world, the Bayern Munich talisman needs to bring the scoring prowess in Poland’s final two group matches he displayed in his record-setting Bundesliga season.

Spain vs. Poland Pick

On paper, this game is a total mismatch. However, as someone who backed Spain at the start of this tournament, this game frightens me from the perspective that the favorite has major issues finishing off its chances.

And because of that, I think Poland has a puncher’s chance at getting a result. For that reason, I’m backing Poland to hang around — and maybe even scratch out a draw — and will play the underdog on the Asian handicap spread of +1.5 at -125 odds via DraftKings as my top pick.

The Poles were the better side in their opening, which basically happened since they were forced to play down a man for almost 30 minutes of the second half. Take a swing on the underdogs to keep this one close.

If you’re looking for a secondary play, go with the alternative total staying under 2.75 goals. When you combine Spain’s finishing issues with the fact Poland will have problems breaking down its foe’s back four, I’m happy to get this number at -122 odds as well.

Pick: Poland +1.5 (-125) | Total Under 2.75 Goals (-122)

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