Real Madrid vs. Sevilla La Liga Odds & Pick: Why to Bet Los Blancos (Sunday, May 9)
David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Karim Benzema.
- Real Madrid has won 16 consecutive home matches against Sevilla, with a 17th victory moving the Spanish powerhouse into first place in La Liga action.
- Sevilla's title hopes were dashed the last time out with a loss to Athletic Bilbao.
- BJ Cunningham believes there is some value to bet Los Blancos as the home favorites in Sunday's showdown.
Real Madrid vs. Sevilla Odds
|Real Madrid Odds||-115|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-145 / +117)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 3 p.m. ET|
|Odds updated Sunday afternoon via DraftKings.|
Real Madrid can go to the top of the La Liga table with a win on Sunday against Sevilla after Barcelona and Atlético Madrid drew on Saturday. Real Madrid have been in impressive form over the second half of the season, with only one loss in La Liga in 2021. They defeated Sevilla 1-0 in the first meeting and will be looking for another crucial three points in the home fixture.
Sevilla's title hopes were put to bed this past Monday when they allowed a 90th-minute winner to Athletic Bilbao at home. It's still been an incredible season for Sevilla who have already locked up a spot in next season's Champions League, but they'll still be looking to finish their season strong in Madrid on Sunday.
Los Blancos have been on a great run since the calendar turned to 2021, despite the draw with Real Betis over the weekend. They have only one loss in in La Liga play and have put up a +14.38 xGD in the process.
Zidane's 4-3-3 system has been completely overwhelming teams this season, as Los Blancos are scoring 1.80 xG per 90 minutes and only allowing 1.00 xG per 90 minutes when playing out of that formation. Karim Benzema has been the man in form, scoring at a 0.65 xG per 90 minute rate in La Liga this season.
What will be interesting in this match is how Real Madrid handle the fact that Sevilla also play a 4-3-3. They were able to handle it well in the first meeting out creating Sevilla 1.44 xG to 0.81 xG, so they should have a fantastic opportunity to grab all three points at home and go to the top of the table.
Sevilla have actually been in fantastic form. and if it weren't for their loss to Athletic Bilbao last week, they would still be in the title race with four matches to go. Before Monday's loss, Sevilla had won seven of their previous nine matches and put up an 8.14 xGD in the process.
Tactically, Sevilla use a fantastic blend of pressing and defensive structure out of their 4-3-3 formation. Depending on their opponent, they may press high up the field or sit back and take away key passing lanes in the middle. It has shown in their underlying metrics as well, as Sevilla only allows 0.91 xG per 90 minutes when playing out of the 4-3-3. However, Zinedine Zidane is a tactical mastermind and will have his team set up very well tactically to break down Sevilla's defense.
Sevilla have had a ton of bad luck traveling to Madrid to face Real over the past 12 years because their 16 matches against Real Madrid away from home, they've walked away with a total of zero points. That's right, Real Madrid has 16 straight matches at home against Sevilla.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Real Madrid desperately need three points to keep their title hopes alive. They should have a good matchup against Sevilla, given the dominant performance they had against them in the first meeting back in December.
Since I have Real Madrid projected at -126, I think there is some value on them at -105 (BetMGM).
Pick: Real Madrid -105