Champions League Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Favorite Bets for Manchester City vs. Paris Saint-Germain (Tuesday, May 4)

Champions League Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Favorite Bets for Manchester City vs. Paris Saint-Germain (Tuesday, May 4) article feature image
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Anne-Christine Poujoulat/AFP via Getty Images. pictured: Manchester City standout Riyad Mahrez.

  • Three Action Network soccer analysts. Three different best bets.
  • Our crew has pinpointed a trio of picks for Tuesday's Champions League match between PSG and Manchester City.
  • Check out their top selections below for this semifinal-round affair at Etihad Stadium.

Global powerhouses Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain square off Tuesday, with the overall winner of the electric two-leg series earning a spot in this month’s Champions League finale.

The Cityzens, who are the consensus favorites to hoist the UCL trophy, hold a 2-1 lead over their French counterparts after last week’s thrilling 2-1 win at Parc des Princes in Paris. Now, Manchester City has firm control of its tournament destiny as it hosts the second leg of their semifinal matchup.

On the other side, Chelsea mustered a 1-1 draw against Spanish giant Real Madrid in the opening game of their two-get set. Those sides will battle Wednesday at Stamford Bridge, with a spot in the championship on the line.

Our Action Network soccer analysts have targeted different three plays for this intriguing affair. Let’s take a look at their detailed thoughts and top picks.


ANALYST PICKS
Jeremy Pond Total Under 3.25 Goals (-141)
BJ Cunningham Manchester City ML (-143)
Matthew Trebby PSG To Score First Half — Yes (+135)

Odds updated as of Monday night via DraftKings.

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Jeremy Pond: Manchester City vs. PSG — Total Under 3.25 Goals (-141)

If you asked me to pick a side entering this meeting, I would lean toward Manchester City getting the win on home soil at Etihad Stadium. Manager Pep Guardiola has the fitter, more talented side and that class should be on full display against a desperate PSG outfit.

However, I’ve gone elsewhere for my top selection. Initially, I was going to back both teams to score, but the juice is just way too much (-177 odds) for me get involved at that price. Instead, I’m targeting the total in this match.

I took a lot of flak for a previous UCL pick, specifically the second leg of the PSG-Bayern Munich tie where I backed the total staying under 3.75 goals at solid odds. When the game ended, it was PSG surviving Bayern Munich’s nonstop barrage of shots en route to a 1-0 scoreline in favor of the Germans.

For me, I see a similar scenario playing out at the Etihad, with the Parisians getting off fewer quality scoring chances than Bayern Munich did against them in their quarterfinal-round matchup.

Manchester City, which boasts arguably the most stout defense in the world, has conceded one goal or less in 20 of its last 23 matches at the Etihad, including 14 clean sheets.

Throw in the fact PSG star Kylian Mbappé is likely not going to be at 100 percent fitness after picking up a recent knock, and you have a contest that should stay under the alternative number of 3.25 goals.

On a side note, the wager I find intriguing that I might toss in is the first half ending in a 1-1 scoreline. You can get ripe +650 odds on that result for the opening 45 minutes at DraftKings if you’re interested in the play.

[Bet Manchester City vs. PSG at DraftKings and get an INSTANT $500 deposit match.]

BJ Cunningham: Manchester City ML (-143) vs. PSG

What was very interesting about the first leg was PSG’s approach once it went ahead. Manager Mauricio Pochettino switched the formation to a very defensive 4-4-2 to try and hold Manchester City’s attack in check, then have Neymar and Mbappe hit it on the counter.

It worked in the first half, with Manchester City trying to force a lot of balls through the middle, which is exactly what the 4-4-2 tries to prevent.

However, in the second half, Manchester City was much more patient and created a lot of chances, although they weren’t high-quality ones. The Cityzens only mustered 0.83 expected goals for the match. Both of their goals were actually quite lucky, as they only had a 0.08 xG rating combined.

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What was even crazier about the match was Mbappé and Neymar were complete non-factors, with Mbappé not even registering a single shot.

PSG is in trouble, too, because Mbappé might not be fit enough to play. Without him and his 0.80 xG per 90-minute scoring rate, I have a hard time seeing how: 1) PSG is going to be able to keep possession; and, 2) get good chances on a defense that has allowed three goals in the Champions League play. The Cityzens also only allow 0.75 xG per match in the Premier League. 

Even though Manchester City doesn’t need to win, its ties against Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund have shown it’s not just going to sit back with a lead. I have Manchester City projected at -255, so I think there’s plenty of value on them at -143 odds.

[Bet on Manchester City now at DraftKings and get $250 FREE.]

Matthew Trebby: PSG To Score First Half — Yes (+135) vs. Manchester City

As BJ laid out above, the lack of attack from PSG’s two stars was very odd in the first leg. The Parisians’ goal was to get out of the first leg with a 1-0 victory, and were content to focus on defending after getting the opening goal.

Now, PSG finds itself in a pickle because of the lack of aggression. The club has to score twice at the Etihad to go through. For that reason, I expect a more normal attack from PSG in the second leg.

Instead of three in midfield, the Parisians should go back to the 4-4-1-1 formation that got them to the semifinals instead of a three-man midfield. They need to win the ball in midfield, then feed Neymar and Mbappé.

Assuming PSG comes out firing in the first half, its quality should get them a goal. Expect much more from Neymar and Mbappé, whose goal is to win the Champions League for the Parisians.

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