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Paris Saint-Germain vs. Bayern Munich Odds, Picks & Predictions For Tuesday’s Champions League Match

Paris Saint-Germain vs. Bayern Munich Odds, Picks & Predictions For Tuesday’s Champions League Match article feature image

Patrick Hertzog/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Paris Saint-Germain star Kylian Mbappe.

  • Paris Saint-Germain welcomes Bayern Munich to Parc des Princes for Tuesday's Champions League match.
  • Kylian Mbappé guided the Parisians to a huge road victory over the defending champions in the opening leg, giving them a distinct edge entering this affair.
  • Jeremy Pond details below how he's playing the game, with his focus on the total.

PSG vs. Bayern Munich Odds

PSG Odds +188
Bayern Munich Odds +120
Draw +310
Over/Under 3.5 (-114 / -108)
Day | Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
TV Paramount+
Odds as of Monday afternoon via DraftKings.

There is an old proverb suggesting “revenge is a dish best served cold.” It can be used in many settings, including a soccer match.

For Paris Saint-Germain, it’s been a long, lonely wait — close to eight months in fact — for the club to have a shot at gaining some retribution against Bayern Munich. Now, the French juggernaut is in prime position to do just that heading into Tuesday’s Champions League match against the defending champion.

The Parisians enter the second leg of this quarterfinal with an 3-2 aggregate lead after picking up last week’s victory in Germany. Kylian Mbappé proved once again why he’s one of the world’s best strikers, scoring two goals to put Bayern Munich on the brink of elimination.

This will mark the 11th lifetime meeting between these global powerhouses, with PSG holding a 6-4 edge in their brief, yet storied, history. The last time they faced each other at Parc des Princes was during the 2017-18 tournament, when the Parisians rolled to a 3-0 win over the Bavarians.

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If you watched the first leg, one thing was absolutely clear: PSG was dominated by Bayern Munich, but did more with its rare scoring chances than the host did with its countless opportunities.

I’m sure manager Mauricio Pochettino and his men could not care one iota about the story the stats and advanced metrics told after the victory. However, the Bavarians did everything they needed to do except score more goals — and keep Mbappé from going off — in defeat.

PSG was outshot by a whopping 31-6 margin (12-5 in shots on goal), plus it lost the possession battle via Bayern Munich’s 64%-36% advantage. The Bavarians also had a massive edge in expected goals, finishing the match with a 3.1-1.5 xG advantage.

That all said, PSG is obviously in the driver’s seat entering the final leg, but needs to do better when it comes to possession. Bayern Munich can hurt you all over the pitch, even with Robert Lewandowski still sidelined with his nagging injury. So, limiting the Bavarians’ relentless attack by keeping the ball away from them has to be the key entering this affair.

Bayern Munich

The Bavarians are in a rare spot at this stage of the European showcase event, as they stare the distinct possibility of elimination square in the face.

Thomas Müller and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting picked up the slack in Lewandowski’s absence, scoring crucial goals to keep the Bavarians within shouting distance of the Parisians. They’re going to have to deliver similar performances, if not better, this time around in the French capital.

Bayern Munich would have loved to had some kind of momentum created before this battle with PSG, but it suffered a disheartening 1-1 draw with seventh-place Union Berlin over the weekend in the Bundesliga.

Historically, there is something working in the visitor’s favor. Bayern Munich has been exceptional on the road in UCL action, going unbeaten in four away games in the tournament and winning three of those contests.

Betting Analysis & Picks

It goes without saying PSG was fortunate in the first leg, but it did what it had to do and sits pretty entering this showdown. Now, the club is back on home soil with a chance to continue its UCL title quest.

Although I do believe PSG is the right side due to the personnel issues Bayern Munich has coming in, I’m turning my attention to the total. I fully expect the Parisians to take a conservative approach, with the goal of limiting the Bavarians’ quality chances and attempting to keep them in check.

For that reason, I’m backing the total to stay under the alternative number of 3.75 goals at -136 odds via DraftKings as my top selection.

I will also back Mbappé to score anytime. He was one of my featured wagers on this exact bet in the first leg, cashing in the third minute of the match, so I’m going back to the well one more time. The Parisians can kill you on the counterattack, which is where I see him coming through on this wager.

Picks: Total Under 3.75 Goals (-136) | Kylian Mbappé To Score Anytime — Yes (+117)

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