Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Borussia Dortmund vs. Manchester City, Liverpool vs. Real Madrid (Wednesday, April 14)

Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Borussia Dortmund vs. Manchester City, Liverpool vs. Real Madrid (Wednesday, April 14) article feature image
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Nick Potts/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City standouts Kevin De Bruyne, right, and Riyad Mahrez celebrate a goal.

  • Champions League action continues Wednesday with the final two quarterfinal legs -- Liverpool vs. Real Madrid and Manchester City vs. Borussia Dortmund.
  • Our soccer analysts, who are 8-1 on their last nine best bets, are back with their latest picks.
  • Check out who they like in the Liverpool vs. Real Madrid and Dortmund vs. Manchester City games below.

There are just two Champions League quarterfinal matchups left on the schedule before we journey to the semifinal round of the European showcase.

Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain did what they needed to do in their second legs Tuesday,  securing spots in the final four of the tournament. The Blues suffered a 1-0 loss to Porto, but advanced via a 2-1 scoreline on aggregate.

Things went similarly in PSG’s battle with defending champion Bayern Munich at Parc des Princes. The Bundesliga side earned a 1-0 win, but was eliminated due to the Parisians leading on away goals in their 3-3 aggregate total.

On Wednesday, the final two affairs should be pretty electric. Premier League side Liverpool, which trails 3-1 against Spanish juggernaut Real Madrid, must put tougher its best effort of the season to advance.

The second game pits global power — and tournament favorite — Manchester City against Borussia Dortmund. The Cityzens are a massive -715 odds favorite to advance at DraftKings, but don’t count out young star Erling Haaland and his Dortmund teammates.

If you’ve been following us, our Action Network soccer analysts have been in stellar form as of late. The crew has compiled an 8-1 record over the last two UCL match days, so they’re looking for similar success in these showdowns.


MATCH ANALYST THE PICK
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid BJ Cunningham Real Madrid +0.5 (-114)
Dortmund vs. Manchester City Anthony Dabbundo Total Under 3 (+100)
Dortmund vs. Manchester City Jeremy Pond Total Under 3.25 (-130)
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Kieran Darcy Liverpool ML (-106)
Dortmund vs. Manchester City Matthew Trebby Dortmund +0.5 (+135)

Odds updated as of Wednesday morning via DraftKings.


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BJ Cunningham: Real Madrid +0.5 (-114) vs. Liverpool

Jürgen Klopp’s men have really struggled to create chances over the past few months, generating only 1.49 expected goals per match. That might be a good goal-scoring record for any other club, but not for the defending Premier League champion, which averaged 1.98 xG per match last season.

Liverpool’s major tactical problem was on full display in the first meeting. Usually, Klopp plays an all-out, high press that gives opponents fits. Liverpool’s high line at the back also keeps teams from playing long balls up the field, causing most foes to spend less time on the ball since they’re forced to make quick passes.

However, due to Liverpool using reserve defenders, it can’t go with that typical approach. The Reds tried it a few times and Real Madrid made them pay, with two goals coming via long balls up the field.

Without their main three center backs available, Liverpool has had to deal with way too many problems. Because of the face the Reds are going to have to play an all-out, attacking style to try and get back in this matchup, its going to leave their inexperienced defenders susceptible on the counterattack.

Manager Zinedine Zidane knows this is going to be the case, thus he will have Real Madrid set up very defensive and try to get after Liverpool repeatedly on the counter like it did in the first meeting.

Therefore, I like Los Blancos to get at least a draw from this match, so I’m going to back their spread of +0.5 at -114 odds as my top selection.

[Bet Real Madrid now at DraftKings and get $250 FREE.]

Anthony Dabbundo: Dortmund vs. Manchester City — Total Under 3 Goals (+100)

Pep Guardiola doesn’t hide his defensive strategy when asked about it by reporters. The Manchester City manager wants — and constantly seeks — total control of matches through defensive possession.

This season, that’s been through pinching his fullbacks in more centrally, attacking with fewer men and not conceding many big chances. With a 2-1 aggregate lead away from Etihad Stadium, the Cityzens will be trying to avoid conceding any goals at all.

While an early Dortmund goal could change this tie and turn it into a bit of a frenzy, Manchester City will otherwise exert control and should be able to keep Dortmund out of transition.

Guardiola is unlikely to play a true striker in this match, instead opting for more of a false-nine type in Ilkay Gundogan or Kevin de Bruyne. Manchester City’s defense has been the best in the world this season, but Dortmund’s back line has actually improved in recent weeks as well.

My projections put this total at 2.77 goals, so I’ll roll with the under here at -105  odds or better. I will hold out hope for no penalties or an early Dortmund goal.

[Bet Dortmund vs. Manchester City now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

Jeremy Pond: Dortmund vs. Manchester City — Total Under 3.25 Goals (-130)

Pretty much everyone — and I mean everyone — I know was on the PSG-Bayern Munich total going over the number in their showdown that what was supposed to be a back-and-forth barnburner at Parc des Princes.

Well, 90 minutes and some stoppage time later, a grand total of one goal was scored in the defending champion’s win that delivered the under with ease to the very few us who forecasted a low-scoring affair.

So, what do we do in this confrontation between Borussia Dortmund and Manchester City in a matchup eerily similar to the aforementioned affair? We go right back to the well with that same angle, pushing aside the popular choice in our forecast of a tighter-than-expected second leg in Germany.

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The Cityzens shut down rising star Erling Haaland last time out at Etihad Stadium, which played a big part in their opening-leg success. As of this past weekend, Haaland is goalless in his last six games domestically and internationally. However, he’s scored in all of Dortmund’s UCL home matches.

So, it doesn’t seem like a 2-1 lead would make anyone overly comfortably going into the opposition’s house for the final leg, but this isn’t any visiting side. This is Manchester City, the best club team on the planet that features one of the nastiest defenses around the world.

That said, I am backing 3.25 goals at -137 odds via DraftKings as my top pick. This group defines the word stingy, so I fully expect a lockdown performance on its way to the semifinal round. If you think the Cityzens look tough to break down in a regular match, wait until you see it defend in one that really matters.

[Bet Dortmund vs. Manchester City at DraftKings and get an INSTANT $500 deposit match.]

Kieran Darcy: Liverpool ML (-106) vs. Real Madrid

I’ll admit that I was surprised by Real Madrid’s dominance in its opening-leg victory. The La Liga stalwart outshot Liverpool by a 16-7 margin, plus it topped its foe by a 2.2-0.8 xG margin, according to FBRef. Real Madrid followed that victory up with a 2-1 win in El Clásico on Saturday, although Barcelona probably deserved a draw since the game featured an even xG stat line.

However, Liverpool will believe it can turn this tie around. After all, the Reds overturned a 3-0 first-leg deficit against Barcelona two years ago

Liverpool earned a 2-1 win over Aston Villa this past Saturday, outshooting the Villans by a  23-9 margin. The Reds have won four of their five matches since March 10, beating Aston Villa, Arsenal, Wolves and RB Leipizig by a combined 8-1 total.

It’s important to note Real Madrid will again be without Sergio Ramos, Raphael Varane and Dani Carvajal, and now Lucas Vazquez as well.

In terms of the season-long xG differentials, Liverpool is the third-best team in England hosting the third-best team in Spain. That said, I think Liverpool at least puts a dent into that two-goal deficit on home soil at Anfield.

[Bet Liverpool now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

Matthew Trebby: Dortmund +0.5 (+135) vs. Manchester City

I understand Manchester City is going to win the Premier League, plus its favored to win its first-ever Champions League crown. I also understand that Borussia Dortmund has won just twice in their last five games on the domestic front.

However, that first-leg performance from Manchester City was underwhelming and Pep Guardiola’s team is struggling at the moment as well.

Dortmund has scored 10 in its last five Bundesliga games. Most importantly, the Black and Yellow were able to get an away goal at Etihad Stadium in last week’s opening leg. Champions League qualification for the side is looking unlikely through the German top flight due to its struggles in the league, so this is it for Dortmund.

Manchester City has lost twice in its last five Premier League games, which shows it isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. Also, Guardiola’s teams have showed a knack for, frankly, blowing it when everything seems set up on a platter for them. (See last season’s debacle against Lyon for reference).

I expect Manchester City to go through to the semifinal round, but Dortmund’s attacking talent will surely make it difficult for the club. So, the price of +143 odds for Dortmund to not lose is very appealing.

[Bet Dortmund now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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