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Borussia Dortmund vs. Manchester City Champions League Odds, Picks & Predictions: Dortmund Can Get Result

Borussia Dortmund vs. Manchester City Champions League Odds, Picks & Predictions: Dortmund Can Get Result article feature image

Tom Weller/picture alliance via Getty Images. Pictured: Borussia Dortmund star Erling Haaland.

  • Manchester City looks to close out its Champions League matchup with Borussia Dortmund in Wednesday's quarterfinal action (3 p.m. ET, Paramount+).
  • Manager Pep Guardiola and the Cityzens hold a 2-1 aggregate lead entering this showdown.
  • Kieran Darcy breaks down Dortmund vs. Manchester City below and explains why he finds value in backing Dortmund to get a result.

Dortmund vs. Manchester City Odds

Dortmund Odds +420
Man City Odds -167
Draw +340
Over/Under 3.5 (+138 / -175)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
TV Paramount+
Odds as of Tuesday evening via DraftKings.

Manchester City is heavily favored to advance in its Champions League matchup with Borussia Dortmund. The pair square off Wednesday in the second leg of their quarterfinal pairing, with the Premier League giants sitting at -715 odds at DraftKings to advance to the semifinal round.

And yet, the Cityzens are only carrying just a one-goal advantage into the second leg. The first match was pretty even — Manchester City earned a 2-1 victory, thanks to Phil Foden’s 90th-minute goal — but the expected-goals battle wound up just 1.3-1.2, according to FBRef.

Dortmund, which host the second leg, has that all-important away goal in its bank that could be crucial when it comes to which side advances marches on in the competition.

So, why is Manchester City such a heavy favorite? And is it worth taking a shot on the underdog? Here’s a closer look at the clubs, followed by my pick.

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There are reasons to be concerned about the host side. To start, the Black and Yellows are only fifth in the Bundesliga and seven points behind fourth-place Eintracht Frankfurt. They also trail league leaders Bayern Munich by 19 points.

Dortmund won this past weekend, but it wasn’t easy — a 3-2 victory at ninth-place Stuttgart. And Stuttgart finished slightly higher in terms of the xG battle, finishing with a 1.4-1.3 edge.

Go a little further back and you’ll see Dortmund has won just one of its previous six matches across all competitions, which came via its 2-0 victory over Hertha back on March 13. Also part of that stretch was a UCL first-leg defeat to Manchester City; draws with Sevilla and Koln (both 2-2 scorelines); and, losses to Frankfurt (2-1) and Bayern Munich via a 4-2 result.

On the bright side, Dortmund looks a lot stronger in the season-long underlying numbers. The Black and Yellows are third in the German top flight in xG differential (xGDiff) at +21.8, which is not far behind RB Leipzig (+26.9 xGDiff) and Bayern (+24.7 xGDiff) in the advanced metric.

Manchester City

The Cityzens are coming off a surprising 2-1 home loss against 10th-place Leeds United last time out, marking just their fourth defeat in league action. However, I wouldn’t be too worried about that setback.

Manager Pep Guardiola, which fielded essentially a second-string side against Leeds, still held a whopping 29-2 advantage — yes, you read that correctly — in shots in the contest. And yes, Leeds scored on its only two shots of the game.

My biggest concern is Manchester City’s history in this competition. They have failed to advance past the quarterfinals in Guardiola’s first four seasons, getting knocked out by Monaco (Round of 16), Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Lyon.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Dortmund will again be without star winger Jadon Sancho due to injury, but Sancho missed the first leg as well.

Jadon Sancho remains sidelined as former side Man City visit Dortmund

— Guardian sport (@guardian_sport) April 13, 2021

Keep an eye on the status of Dortmund captain Marco Reus, who scored in the first leg, and center back Mats Hummels. Both had to leave the game against Stuttgart this past Saturday, leaving them both questionable for this match.

If Dortmund is at close to full strength,  I think the club is worth a shot here. The results haven’t been great of late, but the xG numbers paint a much rosier picture. They have a superstar forward in Erling Haaland, who has racked up an unreal 31 goals in 30 Bundesliga and Champions League appearances combined this season.

Plus, the Black and Yellows have scored in every match but one this season, and that was way back in September against Augsburg.

Manchester City has gone out at this stage the past three seasons, with Guardiola having a tendency to overthink his lineup. I’m not saying the Cityzens won’t advance here, but I like Dortmund’s chances of at least earning a draw at home.

Pick: Dortmund or Draw (+138)

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