2019 US Open ATP Round 2 Betting Preview: Will Reilly Opelka Advance?
Jerry Lai, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Reilly Opelka
The first round of the US Open on the men’s singles side was upset-heavy as several top seeds went down.
On Monday, there were five moneyline upsets – four by underdogs priced between +240 and +275; and Roger Federer lost his first set to Sumit Nagal, a +2800 underdog.
Tuesday saw 11 moneyline upsets, including:
- Andrey Rublev (+150) over Stefanos Tstisipas
- Tennys Sandgren (+200) over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
- Pablo Andujar-Alba (+350) over Kyle Edmund
- Cedrik-Marcel Stebe (+400) over Filip Krajinovic
- Thomas Fabbiano (+400) over Dominic Thiem
- Vasik Pospisil (+500) over Karen Khachanov
- Mikhail Kukushkin (+700) over Roberto Bautista Agut
Will betting underdogs continue to thrive on the blue courts of Flushing Meadows, or will favorites get back to form in the second round?
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Wednesday ATP Bets
Kamil Majchrzak (+137) vs. Pablo Cuevas | O/U: 39
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where: Court 11
- H2H: First meeting
Majchrzak, a lucky loser, was the No. 4 seed in qualifying but lost in his final match to Ilya Ivashka – who was eliminated in four sets on Tuesday.
He replaced Milos Raonic in the draw and was fortunate to get past Nicolas Jarry – saving eight out of 12 breakpoints and winning two out of three tiebreaks.
This is the first time that the 23-year-old has made it to the second round at a Slam, and he has a big opportunity here to advance to the third round against the clay-court specialist Pablo Cuevas – who has never reached the third round at the US Open, Australian Open, or Wimbledon.
At the 2019 Australian Open, Majchrzak pushed Kei Nishikori to the limit, taking the first two sets off of the Japanese before cramps set in and he was forced to retire.
This is an ideal spot for a breakthrough at an underdog price – against a player generally who avoids playing on hard surfaces.
Majchrzak will need his backhand to be sharp to help guide him to victory over the consistent Cuevas:
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 15, 2019
I would also consider the over as I’m expecting both players to grind through games and to trade sets at some point.
Reilly Opelka (-250) vs. Dominik Koepfer | O/U: 41
- Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Court 17
- H2H: First meeting
Opelka was impressive in his first-round victory over Fabio Fognini, with active play from the baseline in addition to his 26 aces.
Following his maiden ATP tour title at the New York Open in February, Opelka progressed to the third round at Wimbledon – his deepest run yet at a Slam; and he’ll look to surpass that again with a couple of more wins in Queens.
Koepfer now has two victories at Slams, each coming in his past two events, but he was far from invincible in qualifying or his first-round matchup against Jaume Munar.
Tennis Abstract gives Opelka an 80.3% chance of advancing – fair odds of -408.
At -250, I think the big server is an extremely worthy parlay piece.
Other Matches to Watch
I’m very intrigued by the matchup between Daniel Evans and Lucas Pouille.
The Frenchman is a decent favorite (-160), but his combined hold/break number on hard courts over the past year is 96.5, thanks to a brutal 14% rate of return games won on hard courts.
But Pouille has looked to be in good form of late, has an excellent 10-3 record in best-of-5 matches, and Evans’ level drops from moment to moment. The over looks to be a solid wager here.
Jenson Brooksby (+300) remains the only American male qualifier in the field, and though many are picking him to win, he will likely have a tough time against Nikolz Basilashvili. I’m staying away entirely.
Pablo Carreno Busta looks to be a significant public favorite, but Ričardas Berankis just won the Vancouver Open and will be coming in confident. I’ll pass on playing that match.
There are compelling reasons to bet against both Borna Coric and Grigor Dimitrov – and over 3.5 sets is as safe a bet as I can find on Wednesday; if you don’t mind laying the juice.
As for players whom I bet, I selected Alex de Minaur and Yoshihito Nishioka for a parlay.
In my Monday preview, I mentioned both players as potential breakout candidates for this tournament. The Australian has the fifth-best hold/break numbers on tour, and Nishioka looked to be in fine form after dropping his first set against Marcus Giron. His combined hold/break rate is also 11 points higher than Feliciano Lopez’s.
To complete a parlay with Opelka, I selected Stan Wawrinka. The 2016 US Open champion hasn’t lost to Jeremy Chardy in five meetings – and only dropped one set– in a tiebreak in 2012.
The Frenchman wins fewer than 50% of his points on all surfaces, and his best surface is likely the clay – so I’ll pair some big hitters together to advance.
Bets (So Far) for August 28
Odds, especially live odds, swing quicker in tennis than in any other sport, so stay tuned on Twitter for my entire Tennis betting card for Tuesday, August 28.
- Kamil Majchrzak (+137)
- Parlay (-120): Alex de Minaur / Yoshihito Nishioka
- Parlay (-110): Reilly Opelka / Stan Wawrinka