ATP Wimbledon Manic Monday Betting Preview: Can Matteo Berrettini Test Roger Federer on Grass?
Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Roger Federer (SUI).
- Round Four of Wimbledon continues Monday at 7:15 a.m. ET, so get your bets in early!
- Sean Zerillo previews Monday's fourth-round action at the All England Club and suggests a few bets that have value.
Manic Monday features all eight men’s singles matches in the fourth round of Wimbledon, but the matches begin at 7:15 a.m. E.T., so you’ll need to get your bets in early.
The slate features each of the big three — Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal, in addition to a matchup between the only two remaining Americans in the draw — Sam Querrey and Tennys Sandgren.
Roberto Bautista Agut (-430) vs. Benoit Paire
These two have met six times previously, and Bautista Agut (“RBA”) has won every match — including a five-set thriller at Wimbledon 2015 where the Spaniard came back from a two-set deficit.
The 30-year-old Paire went 0-2 in his ATP grass matches before Wimbledon, but he has been in good form in 2019 with a 19-15 record, two clay titles, and a run to the round of 16 at the French Open where he fell to Kei Nishikori.
Paire previously made the fourth round at Wimbledon in 2017, where he lost to Andy Murray in straight sets.
This is RBA’s third trip to the fourth round at the All-England club – he lost to Marin Cilic in 2017 and Roger Federer in 2015. His easy third-round win over No. 10 seed Karen Khachanov was impressive, as RBA failed to face a break point for his second straight match.
Paire will undoubtedly have his moments in this match, but I expect RBA to pull it out in four sets and will look to use him in a parlay.
David Goffin (-290) vs. Fernando Verdasco
Goffin and Verdasco have met six times in the head-to-head, splitting those matches 3-3. Verdasco has won twice on hard courts, and Goffin has won twice on clay.
Their combined rate of service and return games won on grass over their career is eerily similar — just over one percentage point — but Goffin’s 2019 form has been slightly more impressive.
He defeated Matteo Berrettini, Alexander Zverev, and Guido Pella at the Halle Open and was the only player other than Dominic Thiem to take a set-off of Rafa Nadal at the French Open.
Verdasco defeated British No. 1 Kyle Edmund in the second round of Wimbledon, and he recorded wins during the clay season over Khachanov (twice) and Dominic Thiem.
Goffin is the slightly more accurate hitter and the younger man — and I expect him to get through here in a grueling four or five-set battle — but I don’t think I’ll be betting on this one as it can go many different directions.
Sam Querrey (-500) vs. Tennys Sandgren
These two Americans have never met, but it’s hard to imagine Sandgren getting by Querrey in this matchup. By the metrics, Sandgren has won fewer first-service points than all but one player remaining in the draw, and he also has the lowest combined career rate of service games won + return games won on the grass.
Meanwhile, Querrey has been hitting winners all over the court and dominating with his serve. He’s won three out of the four tiebreaks that he’s played, and his wins over Dominic Thiem, Andrey Rublev, and John Milman were each more demanding tests than he made them look.
Querrey also has the edge in experience, with a career 57-48 record in majors compared to 8-8 for Sandgren. I’ll back the player who has made the quarterfinals at Wimbledon for two out of the past three years and use Querrey in a parlay.
Joao Sousa vs. Rafael Nadal (-3900)
Sousa must feel lucky to be here, as he has saved 30 of the 37 break points that he has faced in this tournament, and he’s winning less than 70% of his first service points.
He is the first Portuguese player (man or woman) to reach the fourth round at Wimbledon, after defeating Daniel Evans in five sets on Saturday by saving 17 out of 24 break points.
Nadal will have an extra day of rest coming into this match, far superior metrics across the board, and a 2-0 record in the lifetime head to head – though those matches came in 2014 and 2016 — and both were on clay.
Betting Nadal to win in straight sets, or -2.5 sets (-240) seems like a solid parlay piece – but Sousa has also played with such hunger when trailing in this tournament.
Alternatively, I would also recommend Nadal -8.5 games — a spread which he covered by 11 games against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga — as Sousa might have heavy legs after his lengthy battle with Dan Evans on Saturday and is a baseliner that Nadal can pick apart.
Kei Nishikori (-900) vs. Mikhail Kukushkin
Kukushkin (“Kuku”) has been playing great tennis at Wimbledon, upsetting Jon Isner and Jan-Lennard Struff but his run likely comes to an end here against Nishikori – who always excels in the five-set format.
Kuku has saved a remarkable 23 of the 26 break points that he has faced, but he’s also hitting the ball with confidence – with over 2.2 times the number of winners as unforced errors.
Nishikori also owns a perfect 8-0 record against Kuku, and he hasn’t dropped a set in their previous five meetings. Kei has also had three easy straight-set wins, and Kuku has likely played more points than any player remaining in the field. He has played out 300 points on his first serve alone, while Nishikori has played nearly half that number of first service points.
I think Kuku ultimately takes a set or two here depending on his shot quality, but I’m not expecting another upset victory against a perennial slam quarterfinalist in Nishikori.
Guido Pella vs. Milos Raonic (-550)
Pella is no stranger to pulling big upsets at the All-England club, having now defeated the runner-up in back-to-back years after taking out Kevin Anderson in straight sets in the third round.
Pella also defeated 2017 finalist Marin Cilic in the second round of Wimbledon 2018. Like Kukushkin, Pella has played a ton of points already in this tournament, and it remains to be seen how much the Argentine has left in the tank.
Raonic has made three straight Quarterfinal appearances at Wimbledon (including the 2016 finals) and holds every possible statistical advantage here over Pella — though the two have never met directly.
Raonic struggled with a knee injury earlier this season (causing him to withdraw from the French Open), presenting some cause for concern against an opponent like Pella who can defend his serve and get into longer rallies.
Pella has already taken out Anderson and Marius Copil, two players with monster service games.
Perhaps Pella’s game is improving on grass, and I’m unwilling to include Raonic in parlays with the chance that his knee is less than 100% on the defensive end. If anything, I’d look to back the Argentine to take a set in this match, and over 3.5 sets (-120) looks like an enticing play.
Novak Djokovic (-5000) vs. Ugo Humbert
The 21-year-old Humbert defeated 19-year-old Felix Auger-Aliassime (“FAA”) in the third round, ending the possibility for a showdown between the current world No. 1 Djokovic and FAA — the Canadian who many expect to be a future world No. 1 player.
Though he is likely an above-average player on the grass, there is nothing to statistically suggest that Humbert has a chance to win this match unless Djokovic is injured.
This is Humbert’s first test against one of the big three, and I’m expecting an entirely focused and engaged Djokovic after he dropped a set to Hubert Hurkacz in the third round.
Matteo Berrettini vs. Roger Federer (-850)
The Italian, Berrettini, has saved a good number of break points in this tournament and was erratic in hitting 76 unforced errors in his five-set win over Diego Schwartzman.
But his stats are closer to Federer’s than many would suspect, as Berrettini might be the fourth-best player remaining in the draw.
Berrettini defeated FAA in the finals in Stuttgart (also defeating Khachanov, Nick Kyrgios, and Jan-Lennard Struff along the way) and even made a run to the semi-final at Halle, but his level can still go up or down from one moment to the next.
The Italian has more than enough quality to push Federer for a set here, if not more. Federer to win the match 3-1 at +255 seems like an exciting prop wager, but I will be betting the match go over 3.5 sets instead.
Bets (So Far) for July 8
Odds, especially live odds, swing quicker in tennis than in any other sport, so stay tuned on Twitter for my entire Wimbledon betting card for Monday, July 8.
- Nadal -8.5 Games (-110)
- Over 3.5 Sets (+105), Federer vs. Berrettini
- Parlay (+110): Querrey moneyline / RBA moneyine / Nadal -2.5 sets