Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina Australian Open Odds, Picks, Predictions: Tennis Expert Previews
Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina.
Sabalenka vs. Rybakina Odds
| Sabalenka Odds | -135 |
| Rybakina Odds | +110 |
| Over/Under | 22.5 (-125 / +105) |
| Time | How to Watch | Saturday. 3:30 a.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch the Australian Open, click here. | |
We have an incredible Australian Open final on our hands in the women's side of the draw between Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina.
The former is yet to win a Grand Slam singles title, and this will be here first appearance in a major final, but she has reached three prior semifinals and has significant pedigree.
Sabalenka is yet to lose a set in this tournament, getting pushed to a tiebreaker just one time.
Elena Rybakina is aiming for her second Slam title after winning Wimbledon in 2022. This would be a special victory for her as she wasn't able to reap the benefits of that crown as much as she would've liked.
Ranking points weren't awarded at Wimbledon last year due to the Lawn Tennis Association's banning of Russian and Belarusian players from the event, ruling out individuals such as Sabalenka.
Thus, Rybakina hasn't quite gotten the respect that a player would normally get with that crown.
Here is how our women's tennis experts are predicting the Australian Open final of Sabalenka vs. Rybakina.
Sabalenka vs. Rybakina Picks
David Gertler: Despite the slower night conditions, Rybakina won 76% of her first-serve points and hit nine aces in her straight-sets semifinal victory over Victoria Azarenka.
On return, Rybakina was dominant, winning 51% of her return points, including 78% on Azarenka’s second serve. This allowed the Kazakh to break on five occasions.
Rybakina also hit an impressive 30 winners compared to 21 unforced errors during the match.
Sabalenka won 68% of her service points and was only broken once in her own straight-sets win against Linette. Given Sabalenka’s previous issues with her serve, the fact that she only double faulted twice on such a big stage was impressive.
In addition, the Belarusian won over 40% of her first-serve returns and hit 33 winners versus 25 unforced errors.
Sabalenka has now won her first 20 sets of the season, having taken home a WTA Tour title in Adelaide before the Australian Open.
In this matchup – particularly given the slower conditions (it will be a night match), whoever plays with better controlled aggression from the baseline will win this matchup.
Sabalenka has had a positive winner-to-unforced error ratio in every match so far in Melbourne, with this being the most in-control and confident I’ve seen the Belarusian in her career.
She is playing aggressive from both wings, while not hitting herself out of matches, as has been the case in the past.
Rybakina has certainly been strong from the baseline, as well. But, she’s been a little more uneven in her baseline play, and in a tight match that could be the difference.
I also rate Sabalenka’s defensive skills a hair better than Rybakina’s, which is important given that the ability to neutralize power will be a crucial element in this matchup.
When looking at Elo ratings, Sabalenka’s overall Elo is 91.7 points higher than Rybakina’s and her hard-court Elo is 94.2 points above the Kazakh’s.
I have been forecasting a Sabalenka title since before the tournament and nothing that I’ve seen thus far has made me feel otherwise.
This will be a huge test, but Sabalenka will pass it.
Pick: Sabalenka ML (-125)
Jon Reid: I couldn't think of a pair of more deserving finalists than we have in Sabalenka and Rybakina.
The big servers and powerful ball-strikers have been in top form this past fortnight, and they have both proven to be tough to get even a set off of so far at the year's first slam. In fact, the pair have dropped a combined one set to this point – a 7-5 Danielle Collins set over Rybakina, in a match the Kazakh still won by six games.
Despite the similarities, however, each woman does bring something the other does not to the final that could give them the edge.
Sabalenka has the movement and court coverage her opponent cannot muster.
Rybakina, on the flip side, isn't nearly as prone to unforced errors and double faults, making her big game more repeatable.
I think the moneyline price points are on point here, with Sabalenka playing the best tennis we've ever seen from her and being a little more dynamic. If I were to play anything here, I'd be looking at an over – either in terms of sets or games.
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