Best US Open Outright Bets: Rybakina, Kasatkina & Samsonova All Worthy Plays
Dylan Buell, Matthew Stockman/Getty. Pictured: Elena Rybakina and Daria Kasatkina.
The US Open has arrived and players are set to take the court with the last Major of the season on the line!
While 2021 champion Emma Raducanu is in the player's field, she is widely seen as more of a long-shot than a legitimate contender for the title.
So, who are good value plays to win the US Open title and what big name should bettors avoid? Read on for outright predictions for the 2022 US Open women’s field.
Note: All odds came from FanDuel. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches. The full women’s draw can be found here.
Outright Winner
Elena Rybakina (+1700)
After struggling to regain her footing in San Jose – falling in her first match to Daria Kasatkina – Rybakina has gone 4-2 since, with wins over Marie Bouzkova and Garbine Muguruza.
What's more encouraging, rather than the results themselves, is that in all six of these matches, Rybakina has won at least 70% of her first-serve points.
She's also won over 45% of her second-serve return points in six of her seven matches since Wimbledon, the exception being her quarterfinal defeat to Madison Keys in Cincinnati.
Rybakina's first serve is a massive weapon that a lot of her colleagues on the WTA don't have, so if she can dominate with her first serve and utilize her excellent controlled aggression to put pressure on her opponents' second serves, she will have a leg up on her opposition.
The Kazakh's draw is not terrible at all. She plays a qualifier in the first round and then the winner of Alison Van Uytvanck and Venus Williams in the second round. Van Uytvanck doesn't possess the controlled aggression to push Rybakina off the baseline and Williams is an erratic mess at this stage in her career.
A third-round showdown with Aryna Sabalenka would be fairly worrisome, but given that Sabalenka is just 8-9 on hard courts for the season, it's clear that she's not at her best in 2022. This is especially the case given that Sabalenka has hit over five double faults in eight of her last nine matches.
The other seeds in Rybakina's quarter are all players that have either been injured or not at their best recently: Paula Badosa, Victoria Azarenka, Karolina Pliskova, Emma Raducanu, and Danielle Collins.
If Rybakina is playing near her best, she can run through her draw at the US Open and the +1700 line is a bit disrespectful to her.
Daria Kasatkina (+3600)
Kasatkina is an under-the-radar player that is valuable at this price, given her draw. Since the start of the North American hard-court swing, Kasatkina is 7-2 with a title in San Jose (over Shelby Rogers) and she is currently in the semifinals of Granby where she's won at least 60% of her second-serve return points in every match so far.
While Kasatkina's second serve is a concern, her rally tolerance and ability to move the ball around the court into precise targets is world-class. She can hit these targets from both her forehand and backhand wings.
Kasatkina also has excellent variety and is very fast around the court, making it tough to hit through her.
The Russian's draw is fairly kind. Harriet Dart, her first-round opponent, can play on hard courts, but she doesn't have the power to hit through Kasatkina and she'll likely get grinded down.
In the second round, Kasatkina would face either Dalma Galfi or Nuria Parrizas-Diaz (whom she beat in the quarterfinals of Granby). Neither player has the rally tolerance of Kasatkina.
A third-round matchup with Veronika Kudermetova would be a challenge, but Kasatkina leads the head to head 2-0, including a straight-sets victory at the French Open this season. Kasatkina's combination of consistent depth and court craft has been too much for Kudermetova to handle.
Kasatkina might play No. 9 seed Ons Jabeur in the round of 16, but Jabeur struggled in Cincinnati, losing in her second match to Petra Kvitova, and the Tunisian does not fair well in heat and humidity anyways.
Looking at the seeds that Kasatkina might face in the quarterfinals, they're all relatively out-of-form: Leylah Fernandez, Barbora Krejcikova, Martina Trevisan and Anett Kontaveit. The biggest worry for Kasatkina in her quarter could be unseeded Liudmilla Samsonova.
At +4000, it's worth considering a play on a Kasatkina outright.
Liudmilla Samsonova (+6500)
While I don't love playing two players from the same quarter, it does feel like Samsonova is undervalued here given her draw.
Samsonova is 8-0 during the summer hard-court swing, defeating Kaia Kanepi to win the title in Washington and now reaching the semifinals of Cleveland. She has won over two-thirds of her first serve points in all eight matches and has won over 75% of her first serves in her last five matches.
She has also won over 55% of her second-serve return points in six of the seven matches she played during the North American hard-court swing so far.
So, like Rybakina, Samsonova is serving huge and being aggressive on her opponents' second serves. Samsonova has easy power and can overwhelm her opponents with pace, especially with her forehand.
The Russian's section of the draw sets her up well. Samsonova plays a qualifier in the first round and either Oceane Dodin or No. 14 seed Leylah Fernandez in the second round. Dodin is erratic and cannot be trusted, while Fernandez has played one tournament since the French Open, losing in her second match.
Samsonova's third-round matchup would potentially be against No. 23 seed Krejcikova, but the Czech is just 14-11 on the year and has struggled since coming back from injury at the French Open, going 5-7 since her return.
The round of 16 for the Russian would potentially be against Kontaveit, but given how shaky Kontaveit has been since getting Covid, that's not nearly as scary as it would have been a year ago.
And, if Samsonova can make the quarterfinals, with her first serve and controlled aggression from the baseline, she would be a threat against Kasatkina or Jabeur.
Leave: Iga Swiatek (+380)
Swiatek has garnered a lot of deserved praise for her 37-match winning streak from Doha until Wimbledon. However, since the start of Wimbledon, Swiatek has cooled down significantly.
She is just 4-4 in her last eight matches and has complained about the balls for the women's US Open tournament. Swiatek seems to believe that the balls are contributing to her erratic play from the baseline.
However, even at Wimbledon, Swiatek was pressing on her groundstrokes more often, showing less patience on the court than she had earlier this season. Her backhand has regressed and she's not nearly as precise as she was during her winning streak.
With that said, Swiatek's heavy forehand can still control the baseline and her movement is superb, but there are cracks in her game that weren't present earlier in the season.
Looking at Swiatek's draw, she would potentially have to play former US Open champion Sloane Stephens in the second round, and she just pushed Swiatek in Cincinnati.
Based on qualifying, the courts in New York are playing at least somewhat fast, so a potential third-round matchup with No. 28 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova would also be tough.
And, if Swiatek were to get to the quarterfinals, the second-highest seed in her quarter is No. 8 seed Jessica Pegula, who has a 29-15 record this season, including 16-10 on hard courts in 2022.
Swiatek might have the shortest odds to win the US Open, but don't expect her to be lifting the winner's trophy in a couple weeks.
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