Our Favorite French Open Bets for Tuesday’s Quarterfinals: Can Stan Wawrinka Beat Roger Federer?

Jun 03, 2019 07:25 PM EDT

Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stan Wawrinka

  • French Open quarterfinals will kick off on Tuesday with two matches on the men's and women's side.
  • Our tennis experts offer their favorite bets, featuring Roger Federer vs. Stan Wawrinka and Sloane Stephens vs. Johanna Konta.

We’re down to 16 players at the French Open — eight on the women’s side and eight on the men’s.

Ahead of the first day of quarterfinal action at Roland Garros, we asked our resident tennis experts for their favorite bets for Tuesday. Daniel Scotti starts us off with his favorite ATP play, then Brett Farrenkopf will wraps it up with his favorite WTA bet.

Daniel Scotti: Stan Wawrinka +210 vs. Roger Federer

Tuesday, 8 a.m. ET

I don’t see any value in the second men’s match, which should see Rafael Nadal advance with ease. However, I do like Wawrinka at +210 in the first ATP quarterfinals match on Tuesday in an all-Swiss showdown against Roger Federer.

Yes, I’m aware Federer holds a 22-3 record in their 25 career meetings, but all three of Wawrinka’s wins came on clay (3-4 record) — including their most recent meeting on this surface, which came in Paris in 2015.

This is the best Wawrinka has looked in years, and if he can maintain his level, I think his A-game can beat Federer’s A-game on a clay court.

Wawrinka’s level in all three of his GS titles got higher and higher as the tournaments progressed. He’s got a nose for blood, and once he finds himself in the second week of Slams, he’s a threat to anyone left in the field.

Now, Federer has looked great — better than most would have expected, perhaps — but he has yet to face a clay-courter with real weapons. Wawrinka not only has weapons, but arguably the biggest guns on Tour when he’s feeling his game.

Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Roger Federer

Federer will have to be careful when sprinkling in the serve and volley, which he’s done on the dirt all tournament, against a guy like Wawrinka, who loves himself a target. While Wawrinka’s backhand has turned up on most of the highlight reels so far this tournament, it’s been his forehand — like always, it seems, when he’s playing well — that has been his most important shot.

That’s the shot that will be key for Wawrinka to beat Federer.

Wawrinka has to keep Federer moving, defending (like he did in Paris in 2015). Wawrinka has that look about him. And at +210, I have no problem rolling the dice on a former Roland Garros champion — a confident one, at that — against Federer on his worst surface.

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