Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula Odds, Pick | US Open Picks, US Open Schedule

Swiatek Cruising Along

Swiatek won 88% of her first serves and didn't face a break point in her victory over Samsonova. The Pole also won 45% of her return points against Samsonova's big serve, breaking on three occasions.

There was still room for improvement, though, as Swiatek hit 14 winners against 19 unforced errors and won just 45% of her return points.

The World No. 1 is a ridiculous 26-4 on hard courts this season, with an insane 181-46 record on hard for her career. Not bad for hard courts being "only" Swiatek's second-best surface (behind clay), right?

Swiatek hits her spots on serve, having won over 70% of her first serves in every match so far this tournament, and she punishes players from the baseline.

The 23-year old drags players around the court with her groundstrokes, especially her heavy, powerful forehand. She spreads the court, showcasing her high tennis IQ and building points effectively. And when she finds openings, the Pole blasts winners with excellent precision.

Swiatek's court positioning is strong, as she likes to be the one on top of the baseline, directing play.

But, while Swiatek is able to hit with controlled aggression from her backhand, at times, she's certainly more vulnerable from that wing.

In addition, the World No. 1 can struggle at times when she's rushed and when she's unable to consistently get good contact on her groundstrokes.

Pegula's Dream Hard-Court Summer Continues

In beating Shnaider, Pegula won 80% of her first serves, getting broken just twice. In addition, Pegula won 49% of her return points, breaking Shnaider's serve five times. The American hit 22 winners against 23 unforced errors during the match.

Pegula did make just 53% of her first serves and won 39% of her second-serve points, which are areas to clean up.

The 30-year old has had a dream summer on hard, going 13-1 during the summer hard-court swing. This includes a Masters 1000 title in Toronto, beating Amanda Anisimova in the final. Overall, in 2024, Pegula is 23-5 on hard courts. And, as a professional, the American is 288-148 on the surface.

Pegula doesn't have any "signature weapons," which can sometimes get her in trouble. But, she does the little things well.

Pegula anticipates well, which allows her to blunt power and counterpunch. This also showcases the American's high tennis IQ, as she understands where her opponents are likely going.

Pegula has a fairly precise serve that allows her to get ahead in her service games. And, while she lacks overwhelming power, she successfully constructs points, hitting with pace into the openings she creates for herself. Pegula has such control over her groundstrokes, even when she's attempting to be aggressive.

While Pegula does lack excellent variety in terms of slices and drop shots, she does hit with sharp angles, at times. The American has a knack for keeping the ball out of her opponent's strike zone.

This is, in part, due to her flatter hitting, as the ball cuts through the court effectively.

Swiatek vs Pegula Pick

These two have played nine times, with Swiatek leading the head to head 6-3. However, that is better than a lot of players have fared against the Pole and this is the best form that Pegula has showcased coming into this matchup.

While Swiatek is a deserved favorite, Pegula has the game to bother the 23 year-old.

Pegula's flatter hitting keeps the ball out of Swiatek's strike zone, which can frustrates the Pole and allows Pegula to coax unforced errors off of her racquet.

The American also does an excellent job of anticipating where Swiatek is going to hit the ball and defending against her attacking groundstrokes, which also visibly vexes Swiatek during their matchups.

Swiatek likes to be the one in charge of rallies, dictating play. And while she still can do this to an extent against Pegula, the 30-year old does a fantastic job of not giving up too much court positioning and not ceding full control of the baseline to the Pole.

Pegula, in her current form, should hang tough against the World No. 1

Pick: Pegula +1.5 sets (-105)