Tuesday U.S. Open Round 1 Odds & Picks: How to Bet Taylor Fritz vs. Alex de Minaur (Tuesday, Aug. 31)
Casey Sykes/Getty Images. Pictured: Taylor Fritz.
- Day 2 of the 2021 US Open rolls on and our Tennis crew has bets for three matches on the men's side.
- Kenny Ducey has his eyes on an evening matchup between Taylor Fritz and Alex de Minaur.
- Read below for his betting analysis and pick in this match.
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If Day 1 of the U.S. Open was any indication, we are in for a treat of a tournament.
In classic fashion, New York fans put on an atmosphere that makes every tennis bettor and fan in the world want to get to Queens, and players backed it up with some incredible tennis.
Fortunately, the second day is primed to be another one full of opportunities for value. Let’s get into our picks for another slate of slam tennis.
Match times are subject to change.
Tallon Griekspoor (+280) vs. Jan-Lennard Struff (-360)
2:15 p.m. ET
Avery Zimmerman: Do you want to take advantage of one of the lowest quality matches of the day? If yes, then this is the match for you to bet on.
Both the Dutch Griekspoor and German Struff are talented players that have had poor years, to say the least. Griekspoor is 3-5 on the tour in main draw matches this year, while Struff is 19-22. If this was the match for both players to play to their full forms, then Struff would be deserving of his heavy favorite status, but I don’t anticipate that being the case.
Struff is coming off of a poor streak in main draw singles matches. The run includes a brutal loss to Fabio Fognini in which he completely capitulated against an injured opponent, a tight loss to fellow countryman Dominik Koepfer and a demolition at the hands of Ilya Ivashka. In fairness to Struff, Ivashka was unplayable and he did notch one win in that losing streak, against solid opponent Gianluca Mager.
But that lone win against Mager isn’t nearly enough for me to be convinced that Struff would run through Griekspoor, which this line suggests to be the case.
This isn’t a pick to suggest I have full faith in Griekspoor, but more confidence that Struff isn’t near the level he wants to be at, and that will be on display on Tuesday. Betting against a player rather than for a player is a dangerous proposition, but one I think is worth it here.
Pick: Tallon Griekspoor +5.5 -118 (FanDuel)
Kenny Ducey: I will continue to back young Tallon Griekspoor at Grand Slams until he finally wins a match. He finally made the main draw in Australia last year, where he was dusted in straight sets by Taylor Fritz, and again qualified for Wimbledon before running into Alexander Zverev in the first round.
The thing is, Griekspoor has finally begun to hit his stride in the last couple of years, winning matches on the main draw. He brought his big serve and aggressive style to Montpellier earlier in the year, where he took down Marcos Giron and had match points against Ugo Humbert. He went three with Jeremy Chardy, he beat Denis Kudla in Acapulco and then fell in three to Casper Ruud.
The pattern here is that Griekspoor has just been on the cusp of that first big win for quite some time, having taken home plenty of wins and trophies on the Challenger tour. This should be the perfect spot, playing a guy who is an awful lot like him in Jan-Lennard Struff.
There shouldn’t be many breaks in this one, considering the fast surfaces should help both on serve, where they already don’t need much help. It should also be quite an even match when you consider how poorly Struff has played over the last few months, losing four of five heading into this match with a bad loss to Dominik Koepfer and a meaningless win over GIanluca Mager.
This was the place where Struff found some magic last year, but this year should be a different story. These two should treat us to a great match, with the talent of Grieskpoor shining through for all to see.
Pick: Tallon Griekspoor +5.5 -118 (FanDuel)
Vasek Pospisil (+165) vs. Fabio Fognini (-200)
3:30 p.m. ET
Avery Zimmerman: Two familiar names on tour face off here, though their means of going about their business is much different.
The charismatic Fognini has had a fairly standard 2021. With winning percentages between 47 and 60 across the three surfaces, he’s been consistent, a word not often used to describe the Italian.
Pospisil, the former Wimbledon doubles champion and co-pioneer of the new players association (with Novak Djokovic being the other man behind the idea), has not had the same experience in 2021. The Canadian is 2-6 on hard courts this year, with an identical 2-6 record in his last 8 matches.
That record is a far different story than his U.S. Open one, as the tournament has played as his best singles slam tournament throughout his career, bar a 2015 run to the Wimbledon quarterfinals. Last year, Pospisil was able to march all the way to the fourth round.
The two have played twice before on tour, with Pospisil winning both contests. The first was in the round of 64 in that aforementioned Wimbledon run, and the second in the Davis Cup two years ago. The Canadian dropped a lone set in those contests and was able to impose his power on Fognini. I expect a similar story tomorrow.
Go with the player that will give you a much more stable serve in conditions that favor shorter points, and it doesn’t hurt that that player is given extra juice.
Pick: Vasek Pospisil +165 (DraftKings)
Taylor Fritz (+140) vs. Alex de Minaur (-170)
8:15 p.m. ET
Kenny Ducey: If you want to talk about an even matchup, I don’t think it gets closer than Fritz and Alex de Minaur. While the Aussie owns a 4-0 record against Fritz (one match was at the NextGen Finals, which uses different scoring, and one on the Challenger circuit), the two haven’t met in 2019. Things have changed.
Fritz has gone on to grow as a player, gaining valuable experience along the way and picking up plenty of wins at Slams. He pushed Dominic Thiem in Australia last year, then had that memorable match against Denis Shapovalov last year where he fumbled away a 2-1 lead, and just back in January he almost took out an injured Novak Djokovic at this year’s running of the Aussie Open.
He may enter the loser of four in a row, but his run to the semifinals in Atlanta earlier this month is all the proof you need he’s healthy and capable of playing good tennis.
De Minaur? Well, where do I start. He had an excellent grass court season in the lead-up to Wimbledon, but all the wind was quickly taken out of his sails by American Sebastian Korda in the first round. Since then, he’s picked up just one win — and it came as Filip Krajinovic ran out of gas after bageling the Aussie in the first set in Cincinnati.
The Aussie is just getting priced by his name at the moment, not his play. He looks totally lost on the tennis court, and has all year outside of two good grass court tournaments. He has speed, but he lacks a weapon like Fritz’s forehand and I think he will ultimately fall in enemy territory, surrounded by a very pro-Fritz crowd.
Pick: Taylor Fritz +140 (DraftKings)
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