Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Prediction, Pick, Odds for Australian Open Fourth Round

Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys will meet in the fourth round of the Australian Open on Sunday, January 25.

Keys, the defending champion, will need to be in top form against her fellow American, who has been outstanding this week in Melbourne. The match will tentatively start at 7:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.

Find my Australian Open Fourth Round preview and Pegula vs Keys prediction for Sunday below.

Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Player Prediction

• Pegula vs Keys Picks: Jessica Pegula to Win / Madison Keys to Hit More Aces

My Pegula vs Keys best bets are on Pegula to beat the champion and Keys to record more aces in the match. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live Australian Open odds page.

Pegula vs Keys Odds

Pegula vs Keys Preview, Prediction

by Tudor Cosma

Jessica Pegula Betting Preview

Jessica Pegula has finished four consecutive seasons in the Top 10, reaching a career-high World No. 3 spot. She plays a precise game without many unforced errors. She excels in baseline rallies, possesses an efficient serve, and maintains a champion's mentality.

She finished 2025 strongly with a final in Wuhan and semifinals at the WTA Finals. The new season began well with a semifinal in Brisbane.

Here in Melbourne, Pegula has not dropped a set and has spent less than four hours on court, totally dominating Anastasia Zakharova, McCartney Kessler and Oksana Selekhmeteva —though it must be noted she has faced a relatively easy draw so far.

Madison Keys Betting Preview

Madison Keys is undoubtedly one of the best players of her generation, bolstered by the fact that she is now a Grand Slam champion. Even without that title, Madison was always a high-value athlete who, unfortunately, rarely played to her full potential.

From her WTA debut, her weapons were clear: one of the best serves in the world and an aggressive baseline game perfectly suited for fast surfaces.

The 2025 season was the best of her career, reaching a career-high World No. 5. While medical issues hampered her late last year, she looks physically fit in 2026, reaching quarterfinals in both Brisbane and Adelaide.

At this tournament, she has yet to drop a set, though she has experienced some shaky stretches and vulnerabilities on serve.

Pegula vs Keys Predictions, Betting Analysis

Pegula is one of the most stable players in the world. She rarely has a truly off day and generally wins comfortably when favored. Her serve is better than it appears, and she commits very few errors from the baseline.

While Keys has also won in straight sets, she has appeared more inconsistent, with shaky service games. The pressure of being the defending champion is significant, and I believe she may commit more unforced errors today, leading to a possible defeat.

However, Keys remains one of the premier servers in the world. After a slow start, she hit six aces in the third round. So I expect her to go for more power on her first serve today and collect more aces than her opponent.

Pick: Jessica Pegula to Win (-169, DraftKings) / Madison Keys to Hit More Aces

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