Ben Shelton and Valentin Vacherot will meet in the third round of the Australian Open on Friday, January 23. The match will tentatively start at 10:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN2.
Shelton will look to end Vacherot's Cinderella run early and advance to his third Australian Open fourth round in the process.
Find my Australian Open Third Round preview and Shelton vs Vacherot prediction for Friday below.
Ben Shelton vs Valentin Vacherot Player Prediction
- Shelton vs Vacherot Pick: Over 37.5 Total Games
My Shelton vs Vacherot best bet is on the over for total games. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live Australian Open odds page.
Shelton vs Vacherot Odds
| Ben Shelton Odds | -465 |
| Valentin Vacherot Odds | +340 |
| Spread | Shelton -5.5 (-108), Vacherot +5.5 (-126) |
| Over/Under | 37.5 (-116o / -116u) |
| Shelton vs Vacherot H2H | 0-0 |
| Time | How to Watch | Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2, ESPN+ |
| Odds via FanDuel | |
Shelton vs Vacherot Preview, Prediction
Ben Shelton Betting Preview
Shelton seems to keep getting better and better as time progresses, and this year's Australian Open presents a chance to vault into juggernaut status.
Early on in the tournament, Shelton cruised to two three-set victories. While Ugo Humbert forced Shelton to play two tiebreakers in the final two sets of their first-round match, neither of those tiebreakers presented too much stress for Shelton. He also defeated qualifier Dane Sweeny in very swift fashion (6-3, 6-2, 6-2).
Shelton has spent around 4.5 hours on the court in the first two rounds of the tournament, so fatigue shouldn't be a factor in this one. However, we have seen Shelton play extended matches the later he gets into Grand Slams, as the higher quality opponents aren't completely overwhelmed by his serve.
Shelton is a heavy favorite in this match, and I think that is warranted. But looking at Shelton's recent history in hard-court Grand Slams, he wins, but not efficiently, especially against stronger opponents.
In last year's Australian Open, despite reaching the semifinals, Shelton played the following number of games in his matches: 37, 41, 41, 40 (in a match where Monfils retired) and 45.
While his quicker matches in this year's Australian Open are a good sign going forward, I would attribute that more to having an easier draw as a higher seed than to Shelton becoming a player who will eviscerate every one of his opponents. before the quarterfinals.
Valentin Vacherot Betting Preview
Vacherot has gone from the ultimate underdog story to a true quality opponent in a very short time. Vacherot had only appeared in one Grand Slam (a first-round exit in the 2024 French Open) before this year, but he had a rapid ascent at the end of the 2025 season.
Vacherot came out of nowhere to win the Shanghai Masters, defeating prominent names such as Alexander Bublik, Holger Rune and Novak Djokovic to claim that title. He followed up that performance with a quarterfinal appearance at the Paris Masters as well.
Vacherot has seemingly carried that momentum (which landed him the 30th seed in the Australian Open) into 2026, claiming two efficient victories against Martin Damm and Rinky Hijikata.
The key for Vacherot will be to keep up his strong serving from his first two matches at the Australian Open. Vacherot won first-serve points at an 83% or better rate in each of his first two matches, and won on all service points at a 73% or better rate in both matches as well.
Vacherot's serve is definitely good enough to get him to take games off Shelton. Vacherot's fastest serve against Hijikata was 136 mph, and he's averaged at least 120 mph for his average first serve in each of his first two matches.
Shelton vs Vacherot Predictions, Betting Analysis
With no head-to-head between the two, it's hard to decide on the most likely outcome in this matchup.
However, Shelton is the heavy favorite for a reason and will likely win. Still, Vacherot has as much momentum as pretty much anyone on the ATP Tour, and he is not going down easily. Both of these two are incredible servers, but I see Vacherot as a similar opponent to Humbert, but in much better current form.
Shelton hasn't dropped a set despite two tiebreakers, and Vacherot has only dropped one set (by a score of 4-6) in this tournament.
Something has to give in that respect, and I believe that with Shelton's tendency to play longer matches later in tournaments, Vacherot has a very good chance to take a set (or more) in this match, and extend enough sets to higher game totals that the over will hit.
Pick: Over 37.5 Total Games (-116)
