The third round rolls on from the Australian Open, and we're targeting two matchups we like on the men's side.
Let's take a look at the pair of matches below.
Here are my previews and Round 3 Australian Open predictions for Taylor Fritz vs. Stan Wawrinka and Lorenzo Musetti vs. Tomas Machac.
Australian Open Men's Predictions, Picks — Third Round
Fritz vs Wawrinka Odds
| Taylor Fritz Odds | -900 |
| Stan Wawrinka Odds | +610 |
| Spread | Fritz -6.5 (-135), Wawrinka +6.5 (-110) |
| Over/Under | 34.5 (-125o / -115u) |
| Fritz vs Wawrinka H2H | 1-2 |
| Time | How to Watch | Saturday, 1 a.m. ET | ESPN, ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
The last two seasons have seen the rise of Taylor Fritz, including a career-best fourth spot in the rankings in 2024, and continuous improvements at the Grand Slam tournaments, with a US Open final in 2024, a Wimbledon semifinal in 2025 and three quarterfinal appearances.
It's time for the American to take another step and challenge the top tier, namely Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, and in this third round, he will face someone who knows a thing or two about challenging the best: Stan Wawrinka.
The Swiss is just playing for fun by now, 12 years after winning the Australian Open. But he's a reminder that when talent meets opportunity, great things can happen. Otherwise, how did he win three majors between 2014 and 2016 in the Federer-Nadal-Djokovic-Murray era?
His exquisite backhand will challenge Fritz, although the American should prevail with a better serve and forehand, plus greater mobility.
Fritz dropped a set in his debut in Melbourne versus Valentin Royer, but later took care of his second-round match against Vit Kopriva in straight sets. Meanwhile, Wawrinka had to fight through four and five setters in the previous rounds.
Look for Fritz to advance in three or four sets, covering the spread in the process.
Pick: Fritz -6.5 (-135, DraftKings)
Musetti vs Machac Odds
| Lorenzo Musetti Odds | -162 |
| Tomas Machac Odds | +127 |
| Spread | Musetti -2.5 (-125), Machac +2.5 (-120) |
| Over/Under | 38.5 (-125o / -115u) |
| Musetti vs Machac H2H | 0-1 |
| Time | How to Watch | Friday, 6:30 p.m. ET | ESPN, ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
By Tudor Cosma
Lorenzo Musetti is considered the fairly clear favorite here, but I believe he will face an extremely complicated match.
He is currently one of the best players in the world, and his position in the top 10 is well-deserved. He reached this round after a convincing win over Lorenzo Sonego (a match featuring eight breaks), though he did drop a set in the first round against Raphael Collignon in a match that saw nine breaks before the Belgian's retirement.
Tomas Machac is in "dream form," coming off a title win in Adelaide. He has maintained that momentum in Melbourne, defeating Grigor Dimitrov and Stefanos Tsitsipas quite decisively.
Even though the match against Tsitsipas featured very close sets, there were still six breaks of serve, despite Stefanos typically being less effective on the return than Musetti.
I expect a long, balanced battle between two players who can excel in return games. Consequently, I believe we will see over 5.5 breaks in the match.
Pick: Over 5.5 Breaks in the Match
