Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz will meet in the fourth round of the Australian Open on Saturday, January 24.
The World No. 1 is looking for the only Grand Slam title missing on his resume and will face his biggest challenge yet in Melbourne. The match will tentatively start at 9:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.
Find my Australian Open Fourth Round preview and Paul vs Alcaraz prediction for Saturday below.
Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Player Prediction
- Paul vs Alcaraz: Alcaraz -6.5 (-138)
My Paul vs Alcaraz best bet is on the Spaniard to cover the spread in this match. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live Australian Open odds page.
Paul vs Alcaraz Odds
| Tommy Paul Odds | -1200 |
| Carlos Alcaraz Odds | +700 |
| Spread | Paul +6.5 (+100), Alcaraz -6.5 (-138) |
| Over/Under | 33.5 (-120o / -120u) |
| Paul vs Alcaraz H2H | 5-2 |
| Time | How to Watch | Saturday, 9:30 p.m. ET | ESPN, ESPN+ |
| Odds via bet365 | |
Paul vs Alcaraz Preview, Prediction
Tommy Paul Betting Preview
All four of Tommy Paul's ATP titles have been on hard courts, despite his favorite surface being grass. Melbourne is also where he had his best Grand Slam performance to date: a semifinal appearance in 2023, when he became the first American men’s semifinalist in the event since Andy Roddick in 2009.
After not playing for much of the second half of 2025, Paul began this Australian Open on a roll. He has not dropped a set through three rounds, not even going to a tie-break.
Of course, the quality level of his opponents doesn't compare to Alcaraz. "He's the standard," said Paul to the press in Melbourne. He's eager to face the challenge and even shared his overall strategy against the Spaniard.
"You can't really make too many mistakes. I got to serve well, go to the net. I got to attack. I got to try and play on my terms as much as possible," added Paul.
Carlos Alcaraz Betting Preview
For Alcaraz, it will also be a noticeable jump regarding his rivals' level. The Spaniard also won every set so far. And although he had to go to two tie-breaks, getting better as the tournament progresses has become the norm for him at Grand Slams as of late.
The World No. 1 is playing his first tournament after losing the ATP Finals in November 2025 against Jannik Sinner in Italy. His previous hard-court event was the ATP 500 in Tokyo, which he won by beating another American, Taylor Fritz, in the final.
The main drive is not only to keep up with Sinner in this top-tier rivalry, but also prove he can win on this surface. This is the only Grand Slam trophy missing in his cabinet, while he already has two of each of the other three majors.
After losing in the quarterfinals the last two years, look for a laser-focused Alcaraz to really begin his quest against a top-level opponent like Paul.
Paul vs Alcaraz Predictions, Betting Analysis
Looking at their head-to-head history, both players have reasons to be optimistic.
Alcaraz leads 5-2 and has won the last four matchups against the American. However, when it comes to hard courts, things are level, with a 2-2 record over this surface.
The Spaniard lost just seven games in total in his third-round match against Corentin Moutet, with 30 winners and 8-of-13 break points won, showing he might just be revving up in Melbourne.
Back Alcaraz to cover the spread in this match and continue his search for an Australian Open title.
Pick: Alcaraz -6.5 (-138, bet365)
