Frances Tiafoe and Alex de Minaur will meet in the third round of the Australian Open on Friday, January 23. The match will tentatively start at 3 a.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.
Tiafoe will look to avenge a loss against de Minaur in their most recent head-to-head matchup (August 3, 2025).
Find my Australian Open Third Round preview and Tiafoe vs de Minaur prediction for Friday below.
Frances Tiafoe vs Alex de Minaur Player Prediction
- Tiafoe vs de Minaur Pick: Over 35.5 Total Games (-116)
My Tiafoe vs de Minuar best bet is on the over for total games. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live Australian Open odds page.
Tiafoe vs de Minaur Odds
| Frances Tiafoe Odds | +400 |
| Alex de Minaur Odds | -550 |
| Spread | Tiafoe +5.5 (+104), De Minaur -5.5 (-138) |
| Over/Under | 35.5 (-116o / -116u) |
| Tiafoe vs de Minaur H2H | De Minaur leads, 3-1 |
| Time | How to Watch | Friday, 3 a.m. ET | ESPN, ESPN+ |
| Odds via FanDuel | |
Tiafoe vs Comesana Preview, Prediction
Frances Tiafoe Betting Preview
Tiafoe fell off towards the end of the 2025 season, but has changed his approach (and coach) heading into 2026.
Despite being a great hard-court player in general, as evidenced by two semifinals and one quarterfinal appearance at the U.S. Open, Tiafoe has struggled mightily at the Australian Open.
While he made the quarterfinals of the Australian Open in 2019, he hasn't reclaimed that magic recently. He only made it past the second round once after that, until he defeated Francisco Comesana earlier this week.
While Tiafoe has shown off improved form to make his second appearance in the third round since 2019, he still has a massive uphill battle against Alex De Minaur.
Alex De Minaur Betting Preview
De Minaur will have the home crowd supporting him, and as the highest-ranked Australian player, he will have a lot of pressure on his shoulders the further he advances in this tournament.
The good news for De Minaur is that this pressure is nothing new to him. De Minaur has made the fourth round of the Australian Open each of the last four years.
Last season was the best Australian Open performance of his career, as he reached the quarterfinals. Including the U.S. Open in 2024 and 2025 as well, De Minaur has made the quarterfinals in each of the last three hard-court Grand Slams.
While a win against Tiafoe wouldn't put De Minaur into the quarterfinals just yet, he has been very consistent at getting past this round, and this matchup shouldn't pose any special challenges for De Minaur.
Tiafoe vs de Minaur Predictions, Betting Analysis
The head-to-head record between these two sits at 3-1 in favor of de Minaur, although three of those four matchups (all on hard court) happened before the start of 2023.
In the only recent matchup, de Minaur won 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 in the Round of 16 at the ATP Masters 1000 Canada event in 2025. But back then, Tiafoe was nearing his career-best ranking of World No. 10 (he was No. 12 in the July 28 rankings only a few days before that match).
De Minaur is in much better form, but Tiafoe has a knack for coming up in the clutch and, at the very least, extending matches like this.
Both of these players already played matches against easier opponents that dragged on past 35 games (37 for Tiafoe against Comesana and 36 for De Minaur against Medjedovic.
Additionally, according to ATP’s Serve Rating metric, de Minaur ranks 44th, and Tiafoe ranks 52nd. Neither of these two has extremely dominant serves, which will lead to a longer match (most likely four sets) that should hit the over in total games with some close, back-and-forth sets.
Pick: Over 35.5 Total Games (-116)
