WTA Wimbledon Quarterly Betting Preview: Simona Halep Heads Stacked Section

Jul 01, 2018 11:10 PM EDT

The Highlights

  • Fresh off her first Slam win at the French Open, Simona Halep finds herself in a quarter with three other major winners.
  • While Halep (+500) is the top seed, oddsmakers make Petra Kvitova (+188) the favorite.
  • This intriguing section features scary unseeded grass specialists capable of pulling off an upset.

After finally breaking through for her maiden Grand Slam title at the French Open, Simona Halep (+500 to win quarter) has her first match since then scheduled for Tuesday at Wimbledon. A letdown should be considered, but a favorable draw in the first few rounds should keep that scare away. However, the overall quarter is absolutely stacked, with three other major winners and a few grass-court specialists floating around.

Oddsmakers actually make two-time Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova (+188) the favorite to win this quarter. The Czech comes in having won six straight on the lawn this season and 12 of 13 since 2017.

Let’s further handicap Halep’s section from a betting perspective by looking at important head-to-heads, potential moneyline parlay pieces, upsets to look out for and quarter futures value.


Halep Head-to-Head vs. Seeds

  • 4-1 vs. Petra Kvitova (1-0 on grass)
  • 1-1 vs. Jelena Ostapenko
  • 1-0 vs. Elise Mertens
  • 1-3 vs. Johanna Konta (0-1 on grass)
  • 2-7 vs. Maria Sharapova
  • 3-1 vs. Daria Gavrilova
  • 7-0 vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

Halep has a 7-0 record against the only seed that could keep her from advancing to the fourth round, but there are many potential landmines after that point.

 

Key Head-to-Head Records

  • Dominika Cibulkova 7-3 vs. Alize Cornet (never met on grass)
  • Cibulkova 4-2 vs. Halep (1-0 on grass)
  • Sharapova 7-4 vs. Kvitova (0-1 on grass)

Trickiest Path

  • Konta: (1R: Natalia Vikhlyantseva, 2R: Cibulkova, 3R: Mertens, 4R: Halep, QF: Kvitova/Sharapova/Ostapenko)

Unseeded Grass Specialists

  • Kirsten Flipkens: 63-32 career grass record; 17-8 past three years; no titles
  • Zarina Diyas: 42-19 career grass record; 9-5 past three years; two titles

Flipkens made a final this grass season and loves the lawn. Same can be said for Diyas, who has two career titles on her favorite surface.

Potential Moneyline Parlay Pieces

  • Flipkens (-185) vs. Heather Watson
  • Taylor Townsend (-210) vs. Pauline Parmentier
  • Cibulkova (-230) vs. Cornet

Cibulkova should come in with a chip on her shoulder after having her seed robbed by Serena Williams. She owns a 7-3 record vs. Cornet, who has just a 15-26 career grass record, including 1-5 over the past two years.

Prior to her first-round loss last year, the Frenchwoman did win at least a match in four straight Wimbledon appearances, but Cibulkova has made two quarterfinals at the All England Club.

Parmentier is 5-20 in her career on the grass (all levels) and has lost eight straight at the tour level.

Upset Alert

  • Pavlyuchenkova (-140) vs. Su-Wei Hsieh
  • Gavrilova (-180) vs. Diyas
  • Maria Sakkari (-125) vs. Sofia Kenin

 

Diyas does have fitness questions, as she retired in her last match against Sam Stosur. However, if healthy, she should beat Gavrilova on grass.

Sakkari is 0-2 on the grass this season, while Kenin has won five of six (including qualifiers) on the grass this season, including an impressive win over Caroline Garcia.


Finding Futures Value

Halep has a fairly easy path to the fourth round, but she has her work cut out for her to make it out of the quarter. If Konta (+700) can get by a tough potential second-round matchup against Cibulkova, and a brutal draw, she could give Halep fits. The Brit owns a 3-1 career record against Halep, which includes a win at Wimbledon last year.

If Halep can ultimately get through to the quarters, she’ll most likely face one of three Grand Slam winners in Ostapenko, Sharapova and Kvitova. In an absolutely loaded draw, I’ll side with the form and grass pedigree of Kvitova.

If you’re looking for a deep sleeper, Flipkens (50-1) and Cibulkova (28-1) fancy the grass and have both made a quarterfinal here. (Cibulkova has made two quarters, and Flipkens actually made a semi in 2013.) But neither has an easy path.

Quarter Bets to Watch: Kvitova +188


More WTA Wimbledon Betting Coverage

Credit:

Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Simona Halep

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