2018 WTA Wimbledon Betting Preview: A Loaded Futures Field

Jun 30, 2018 5:00 AM EDT

Highlights

  • Wimbledon will kick off on Monday — a perfect summer complement to World Cup action.
  • Petra Kvitova owns a 7-0 grass record this season and currently sits as the betting favorite to win her third Wimbledon title at +500.
  • Serena Williams, who won the last two times she competed in London, comes in as the second-highest favorite at +600.
  • Kvitova and both Williams sisters have combined to win 14 of the 18 Wimbledon titles since 2000.

What a Wimbledon draw we have this year. An absolutely loaded field that will provide a number of popcorn matches right from the jump.

Much of the pre-tourney talk will center around Serena Williams and her quest to capture a record-25th Grand Slam title. Serena hasn’t played a match on grass (her best surface in my eyes) since 2016, but she’s won 14 straight on the lawn — including back-to-back Wimbledon titles in 2015 and 2016. If fully fit, she has as good of a chance as anybody in the field. I mean, she has won here five of the past nine years and didn’t even compete last year. Since 2000, Serena owns an absolutely silly 91-10 record on grass at the Tour level.

If you include Venus, the Williams sisters have won 12 of the 18 Wimbledon championships since 2000. The only other women in the field to take home a title over the past 10 years are Petra Kvitova (2011, 2014) and Garbiñe Muguruza — the defending champion. Throw in a red-hot Caroline Wozniacki (the Australian Open champ), Simona Halep coming off her maiden Major win and a number of grass specialists and you get one spectacular draw.

 

Seed Money

As with every Slam, I’ve created this Wimbledon betting cheat sheet for futures and daily betting throughout the tourney. Women highlighted in green have previously won a grass tournament on Tour.


Previous Wimbledon Champions in Draw:

  • Serena Williams (2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2016)
  • Venus Williams (2000, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008)
  • Petra Kvitová (2011, 2014)
  • Garbiñe Muguruza (2017)
  • Maria Sharapova (2004)

Wimbledon Semi Appearances Since 2015

  • Serena Williams (2)
  • Venus Williams (2)
  • Garbiñe Muguruza (2)
  • Maria Sharapova
  • Angelique Kerber
  • Magdaléna Rybáriková
  • Johanna Konta
  • Agnieszka Radwanska
  • Elena Vesnina (unseeded)

Wimbledon R16 Each of Past 3 Years

  • Venus Williams
  • Coco Vandeweghe
  • Agnieszka Radwanska

2018 Grass Tournament Winners

  • Petra Kvitova (Birmingham)
  • Ashleigh Barty (Nottingham)
  • Aleksandra Krunić (Rosmalen)
  • Tatjana Maria (Mallorca)
  • Caroline Wozniacki (Eastbourne)

Serena’s Grass Losses to Players in Field

  • Alize Cornet (2014 Wimbledon R32)
  • Vera Zvonareva (2011 Eastbourne R16)
  • Maria Sharapova (2004 Wimbledon final)
  • Venus Williams (2000 Wimbledon semis)

Junior Wimbledon Champions

  • Kirsten Flipkens (2003)
  • Kateryna Bondarenko (2004)
  • Agnieszka Radwanska (2005)
  • Caroline Wozniacki (2006)
  • Kristyna Pliskova (2010)
  • Ashleigh Barty (2011)
  • Genie Bouchard (2012)
  • Belinda Bencic (2013)
  • Jelena Ostapenko (2014)
  • Sofya Zhuk (2015)
  • Claire Liu (2017)

2018 Unseeded Players to Make Wimbledon QF

  • Viktoria Azarenka (2009, 2011, 2012, 2015)
  • Svetlana Kuznetsova (2003, 2005, 2007, 2017)
  • Dominika Cibulková (2011, 2016)
  • Kaia Kanepi (2010, 2013)
  • Vera Zvonareva (2010)
  • Francesca Schiavone (2009)
  • Timea Bacsinszky (2015)
  • Lucie Šafářová (2014)
  • Genie Bouchard (2014)
  • Ekaterina Makarova (2014)
  • Kirsten Flipkens (2013)
  • Elena Vesnina (2016)
  • Yaroslava Shvedova (2016)

Odds and Ends

  • Karolina Pliskova has never made it past the third round at Wimbledon.
  • Elina Svitolina is 5-5 here and has never advanced past the fourth round.
  • Julia Görges has lost in the first round at Wimbledon in five straight years.
  • Angelique Kerber’s last three losses here have come against Muguruza (twice) and Serena.
  • Venus Williams’ last four losses in this tourney have all come against former Wimbledon champions.
  • Agnieszka Radwanska’s results at Wimbledon the past six years: final, semi, R16, semi, R16, R16
  • Maria Sharapova hasn’t played a match on grass since her semifinal loss here in 2015.
  • Genie Bouchard and Vera Zvonareva, both former Wimbledon finalists, came through qualifying to make it into the main draw.
  • Seeds that have never won a match at the All England Club: Ashleigh Barty (0-2), Zhang Shuai (0-4) and Mihaela Buzărnescu (0-0)

Futures Lounge

Pick to Win: Petra Kvitova

Kvitova has an easy path into the R16. She’s also rolling, having won seven straight matches on the grass this season. Given the surface, Wimbledon tends to play out a little more chalky, as the eventual winner will need to serve at a high level throughout the tourney. That’s especially true with a loaded field, which we have this year.

I don’t have as many questions with Petra as I do with the other top players, whether they be about rust, draw, form, style or health, which I’ll get into more in the individual quarterly previews. The Czech has the form, draw and grass game to win her third career Wimbledon title.

In regards to longshots, I don’t see any mispriced futures this year, whereas last year we got semi-finalist Magdalena Rybarikova at 250-1. However, a few might warrant small investments. I had Coco Vandeweghe circled for this tourney a few months ago, as I think the American will eventually get at least one Wimbledon title, but her game has looked off this grass season.

Coco is one of only three women to make the R16 here in each of the past three years — along with Aga Radwanska and Venus Williams. Aga needs the draw to break right, as she must avoid power, but I see a few paths to profit. I’m more hesitant on Venus, especially with a potential second-round clash with Kristyna Pliskova.

Lastly, if Camila Giorgi plays at her peak level, she can do serious damage on grass. Even with a tough draw, she’s worth a half-unit dice roll.

Futures I Bet: Kvitova +500, Radwanska 66-1 (0.5 unit), Giorgi 100-1 (0.5 unit)

All odds via 5dimes as of 5:30 a.m. ET on Saturday.


More WTA Wimbledon Betting Coverage

Credit:

Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Garbine Muguruza

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