Canadian Open Betting Guide: Don’t Bail on Brandt Snedeker Quite Yet

Credit:

Bob Donnan, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Brandt Snedeker

  • Dustin Johnson is a short +500 favorite to win the Canadian Open at Glen Abbey.
  • The course is made for players who can bomb the ball off the tee, so it's no wonder that Brooks Koepka and Tony Finau are among the favorites.
  • Brandt Snedeker (+4000) and Keegan Bradley (+6000) represent good value in the mid-tier and there are some guys way down the board worth a dart.

For the second time in about a month, Francesco Molinari found his way to the winner’s circle to cash a nice outright ticket for us at the Open Championship, bringing our total winners to 10 for the season.

But golf never stops, so we take a look north of the board to the RBC Canadian Open at Glen Abbey. The course has been a bombers paradise in recent years, playing relatively short for a par 72 at 7,253 yards. This gives the longer hitters a chance at reaching all four par-5s with a driver and a short to mid iron. Because of the scoring opportunities, it’s going to take a low score to win here. In five of the last six events at Glen Abbey, the winning score was 16-under or better.

The Field

We have a stronger field than the norm for this week. Usually, it’s tough to get the stars to travel back from the U.K. to Canada for this event, but a bunch of big names is set to tee it up this year.

Dustin Johnson opens as the favorite on Sportsbook at +500. He’s had a good track record here with a couple of runner-up finishes. His ability to feast on the par-5s always makes him a popular play this week.


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Brooks Koepka (+950), Tony Finau (+1350), Tommy Fleetwood (+1400) and Bubba Watson (+1800) are the only other players below +2000. Koepka should fit here, but he has a tendency to let down a bit when the field isn’t at full strength. Both Finau and Watson have the length to take advantage of the par-5s and have had success here before. Finau finished fifth last year and Bubba was a runner-up in 2015 to Jason Day.

The Favorites

As mentioned, Johnson fits this course as well as any on tour. He’s been in the top 10 the last three times he’s played here, including the aforementioned runner-up finishes in 2016 and 2013. At his number, it would basically be my only play, so I’ll stay away. But I wouldn’t argue against anyone who just wanted to make one large bet on DJ and be done. This is a spot where he could just run away by five shots.

I’ll keep a close eye on Finau and Bubba, and if a +2500 pops up somewhere, I’ll likely be in. They have a similar skill set to Johnson; plus, their games should work here, and you’re getting triple the odds compared to DJ. Bubba especially has been hot this year with three wins. He’s shown the ability to close when getting into contention, so if you’re trying to pick someone in that range, that’s where I’d lean.

The Mid Tier

Not a whole lot caught my eye in the middle range this week. With the stars at the top, many of the guys in the 40-1 to 66-1 spots just feel a bit too low.

I will be backing Keegan Bradley at +6000 (MyBookie) out of this group. He’s the one guy who caught my eye. He’s been putting a lot better recently, picking up ground on the field in three of his last five tournaments. He’s also been recording some solid finishes outside of the majors, finishing in the top 25 in three of his last four regular tour starts. He’s had a long winless drought on tour, but we’ve seen droughts similar to his snapped all season with the likes of Ian Poulter, Paul Casey and Molinari picking up wins. Bradley could easily be next on that list. I’ll also be putting a top 5 play on him in the +1300 range.


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I’ll also be going back to the well with Brandt Snedeker. I had him at the Open as my longshot and that went about as poorly as it could. But at +4000 on Sportsbook, I still see some value in him. He’s won on this course before and despite a bad Open Championship, he still looked good in his start before Carnoustie with a third at The Greenbrier.

The Longshots

When guys such as Day and Snedeker haven’t been taking this title down from the pack of favorites, it’s been the longshots who win here. Jhonattan Vegas has won the last two years, going off at triple digits each time. No such luck with Jhonny V this week. He opened at +4000, but there are plenty of guys who bomb the driver and make birdies in bunches who can follow his recipe for success.

Keith Mitchell stuck out right off the bat at 95-1. Mitchell’s best results are on the bomber tracks with top-6 finishes in Houston and at the Byron Nelson.

After Mitchell, I’m going way down the board with Stephan Jaeger at 350-1 and Talor Gooch at 450-1. Jaeger has made three of his past four cuts since getting a boost from a win on the Web.com Tour. He’s gained strokes off the tee in each of those starts. Gooch had been ice cold until The Greenbrier when he found his game a bit and finished 21st. He picked up a couple of good results on driver-heavy courses early in the season with top-20 finishes at the Genesis and Wells Fargo Championship. The stats won’t be pretty, but at these numbers, they rarely are.

I’m back all three of these guys for top 20s in the +500 to +1100 range.

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