Sobel: Ranking the Hero World Challenge Field, From 1-18

Sobel: Ranking the Hero World Challenge Field, From 1-18 article feature image
Credit:

Eric Sucar, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Justin Rose.

  • Justin Rose is the betting favorite to win the 2018 Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas.
  • Jason Sobel ranks the field from 1 to 18 and picks out a few value plays for the tournament.

Of the multiple disappointments on various levels in the aftermath of “The Match,” the most disappointing aspect might have been the lack of side action — and the lack of creativity in what side action there was.

The four “challenges” that were won included a guaranteed birdie that didn’t happen and three closest-to-the-pin challenges on par-3s holes.

Zzzzzz.

Here’s hoping that Tiger Woods got the bug, though.

There would be nothing better than Woods playing the first hole of his own Hero World Challenge this week, then turning toward opening-round playing partner Justin Thomas and declaring, “Half a mil says you can’t get this up and down.”

I mean, he’d be breaking all sorts of PGA Tour rules if he started in-tournament betting props with his fellow pros, but who cares? What are they gonna do, fine the GOAT? Suspend him? Make him play minor league baseball in Birmingham?

Alas, there will be no official side action this week – not even of the lame variety.

That doesn’t mean you can’t have some action, of course.

Because this is one of the biggest tournaments of the year and because it features a celebrated field and because I’m a benevolent golf writer, I’ve decided to treat this like a major and rank the entire field.

Either that, or I just figured listing 18 players would be easy enough.

Probably more of the latter.

Anyway, let’s get right to it, beginning with an erstwhile No. 1 player in the world who could move back atop that list this week.

1. Justin Rose +550

He’s the tourney favorite and rightly so. Not only does Rose live nearby, making this a home game, he’s riding a heater that’s seen him finish eighth-or-better in each of his last half-dozen starts.

2. Tony Finau +1300

You didn’t think I’d go straight chalk, did you? Finau keeps coming so close, so often, that the PGA Tour is just going to start giving him trophies that say things like, “Really close!” or “Great Try!” Maybe he’ll get one this week that actually belongs to the winner.

3. Justin Thomas +725

Expect a hot start, as nothing gets JT’s motor running like a pairing with Tiger, his playing partner in the first round. After some much-needed time away, I think he’ll be fired up for this one.

4. Rickie Fowler +750

The defending champion is riding a streak of a dozen straight top-30 finishes. My guarantee: He’ll pull another one this week. Hell, lock him in for a top-18 finish, at the very least.

5. Gary Woodland +2500

You want a value pick? You’ve got one in Woodland, who owns top-10s in three of four starts in the early part of this PGA Tour season — and yet, he’s still tied for the third-highest odds on the board.

6. Henrik Stenson +2100

More value here. After a midsummer injury stalled what was an impressive ball-striking season, he’s now trending in the right direction. And the bigger news? He’s obviously healthy, or else he wouldn’t be teeing it up in this one.

7. Bryson DeChambeau +850

Kind of amazing to think BDC can be ranked seventh in an elite field like this one, but it’s still lower than his current world ranking of fifth. The best part about betting on Bryson is that there are no mail-it-in weeks – or even singular mail-it-in shots.

Jason Day watches his tee shot at the Tour Championship. Credit: John David Mercer, USA TODAY Sports

8. Jason Day +1500

Honestly, wasn’t quite sure what to do with Day here, but that number does hold some value. A recent father for the third time, he could piggyback on the success of others in the same situation, which tends to inspire strong play with the home life stabilized.

9. Xander Schauffele +1600

Over the past two years, X-man has not only proven to be proficient at big events, but more importantly, a big-game hunter, as if his relative lack of notoriety feeds his inspiration.

10. Patrick Cantlay +1700

If you’re playing a full-year fantasy league for 2019, load up on names like Cantlay, Finau, Grillo and Uihlein — then don’t forget to tip your dealer.

11. Patrick Reed +1400

Look, it’s admirable that Reed wants to be considered a global player by competing on two tours, but you’ve got to wonder whether all that travel (China, Dubai and Hong Kong in the past month) will have his head spinning this week.

12. Dustin Johnson +625

Since this tourney has moved to Albany, he’s finished 14-3-15. I’m always a bit worried about DJ’s motivation, but never more than at a small-field event in late-November.

13. Tiger Woods +725

I know he hasn’t played much golf lately, but the Tiger who I saw at Shadow Creek last week looked lethargic. Maybe it was just the format, but I think we might see more Ryder Cup Tiger than Tour Championship Tiger this week.

14. Jon Rahm +1000

Yes, I realize it’s insane to have a guy of Rahm’s talent level at 14th on this type of list, but then I look at the 13 guys ahead of him and it still feels right.

15. Hideki Matsuyama +2100

Truth be told, I’ve been calling for him to heat up since August. While it almost-kinda-sorta happened, he never quite went full heater, but maybe the 2016 champion can recapture a little of that magic.

16. Keegan Bradley +3000

The last man in the field after Tommy Fleetwood withdrew last week, Bradley should feel like he’s playing with house money — free cash and ranking points that he otherwise wouldn’t have collected.

17. Alex Noren +2700

No offense, Mr. Noren. He owns the second-highest odds and ranks second-to-last on this list, all of which I’ll assume will have the bookmakers and I eating crow by Sunday afternoon.

18. Bubba Watson +2500

What a strange year for Bubba, who proved more than ever before that he’s a world-beater at events where he’s comfortable and an afterthought everywhere else.



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