Sobel’s Mayakoba Golf Classic Preview: Rickie Fowler Favored In Mexico

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Just over nine years ago, Rickie Fowler lost the then-Frys.com Open in a playoff.

Conventional wisdom stated that it was only a matter of time until the 20-year-old started winning tournaments on the PGA Tour — and well, that was true to an extent. He won at Quail Hollow three years later, then didn’t win again for three more.

Even now, discussions about Fowler’s immense talents start with what he hasn’t won that what he has. If he’s not the best current player without a major championship, he’s at least near the top of the conversation.

And just last week, when Bryson DeChambeau claimed his fifth career title in just 16 months, the easy comparison around Golf Twitter was to Fowler, who started nearly a decade earlier, but whose odometer remains stuck on four.

I’ve always believed one of the biggest issues for Fowler was that he got too good, too quickly.

Bear with me here: There’s rarely a downside to playing elite-level golf as a young professional, but there might’ve been in this case. By the time he was 21, in just his second year as a pro, Fowler was already qualifying for majors, WGCs and invitationals. Nothing wrong with that, right?

Well, maybe not.

Due to the fact that he progressed so quickly, Fowler largely missed out on the part of the process that would’ve had him competing against similarly accomplished players in smaller events. Sure, he played a few of them here and there, but almost right from the start he was playing in fields that included only the best of the best.

This isn’t to make any excuses for why Fowler, currently the world’s ninth-ranked player, hasn’t won more PGA Tour events. It should simply serve as an explanation. There was a Catch-22 at play: He obviously couldn’t turn down the opportunity to play in those bigger events, but he probably needed some more reps when he was one of the best players on site that week.

Over those last nine years, I think he would’ve been better served playing a few more events like the one he’s competing in this week — the Mayakoba Golf Classic, where for one of the first times in his career, Fowler ranks as the prohibitive favorite.

If he’s wins this tourney from a +900 position, I’m sure some people will simply excuse it away as an event he should’ve won against an inferior field. But I think this is an important one for Fowler, one which could lead to an important dose of confidence and momentum leading into the 2019 campaign.

Let’s move on to my Mayakoba picks, starting with the chalky play who’s rarely been chalk.

Favorites

Rickie Fowler (+900)

I rarely like playing the chalk, but Fowler’s final-round 63 in Las Vegas was too special to ignore. As I wrote above, don't dismiss a win — or even just another title contention — as being the catapult necessary to lead him to bigger successes next year.

Aaron Wise (+2700)

I’m skipping over the likes of Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau and Gary Woodland to get straight to Wise, who I liked a lot last week, when he finished T-15. In his first start since the FedEx Cup playoffs, he knocked off any lingering rust and should be ready for a big week.

Emiliano Grillo (+3000)

At 6,987 yards, host venue El Camaleon GC is going to feel like a pitch-n-putt to players who are used to stretched-out slog-fests every week. What does it all mean?

Round up your best ball-strikers for this one – and Grillo is right near the top of the list. Ranking in the top-10 in strokes gained approach shots already this season, he’s primed to win another title very soon. This course should suit him perfectly.

Mid-Tier

Si Woo Kim (+4000)

We never really know which Si Woo will show up, but a T-15 last week and a T-3 at this event last year foists him strongly into that intersection of recent form and course history.

We know the former Players champion can win, so he’s worth a bet, though I’d be careful about loading him up in DFS lineups, just because of his noted inconsistency.

Abraham Ancer (+4500)

He’s better than you realize, running hot right now and about to play a course that should suit his game. What else should you know about Ancer? He’s finished in the top-seven in five of his last 11 starts and just cracked the top-100 for the first time in his career. I’d be surprised if he isn’t again in contention this Sunday.

Joaquin Niemann (+4500)

Where does Niemann rank among the best young up-and-comers in the game right now? I think the jury is still out on whether he’s second or fourth or sixth, but he’s up there somewhere. Coming off a T-10 last week, he should build on that momentum this week.

Longshots

Bronson Burgoon (+8000)

Here’s your all-or-nothing candidate for the week. In his last nine starts, Burgoon owns two runner-up finishes to go along with four missed cuts, including one of each in his last two events.

Much like Kim, it’s tough to know which Burgoon will show up, but at 80-to-1, it’s worth finding out if it’s the right one.

J.J. Spaun (+9000)

Though he does most of his damage in West Coast events, Spaun is simply too talented to have a number this big. He played really well a week ago and, like Grillo, ranks among the top ball-strikers this season.

Sam Burns (+9000)

Last week, Burns' odds plummeted as he traveled to Vegas fresh off a T-3 in Mississippi. Of course, it didn’t matter what number you got him at, because he was leaving town by Friday after a missed cut. It’s worth jumping back on the Burns wagon this week, though, especially if the price stays as it is now.