Perry: The Upset I’m Eyeing on Ryder Cup Day 2

Perry: The Upset I’m Eyeing on Ryder Cup Day 2 article feature image
Credit:

John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

  • Day 2 of the Ryder Cup gets underway on Saturday morning at 2 a.m. ET.
  • Joshua Perry analyzes one underdog pairing that's providing value during Saturday's morning session.

Day 1 of the Ryder Cup went about as expected.

The U.S. dominated in fourball, where there bombers and birdie-makers could do the most damage.

But Europe fought back in the alternate shot format. Their knowledge of the course and ability to minimize damage led to one of the most lopsided sessions in history.

We also got a glimpse out how important the captain can be.

European captain Thomas Bjorn expertly handled his rookies and struggling vets, while Jim Furyk didn’t put his (particularly Phil Mickelson and Bryson DeChambeau) in the best position to succeed.

Let’s move on to Day 2, where I have an underdog play I like.

I’m going with Paul Casey and Tyrrell Hatton at +148 over Dustin Johnson and Rickie Fowler on MyBookie (two-way bet without a halve option).

This is a total mismatch on paper right? Johnson and Fowler dominated their match (winning 4&2), while Hatton and Casey fell short, losing by one to Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth.

Well, match play can be a little deceiving: Hatton and Casey shot 8-under par against Thomas and Spieth, but it just wasn’t good enough.

Meanwhile, the Johnson/Fowler duo was 7-under through 16 holes against Thorbjorn Olesen and Rory McIlroy, the latter of whom didn’t make a birdie.

If they had been pitted head-to-head, Hatton and Casey would’ve had a 1-up lead on DJ and Fowler after those same 16 holes.

(It’s not as simple as that, of course, because the opponent’s shots can affect your aggressiveness, and with Rory struggling, DJ and Fowler likely took their foot off the pedal a bit.)

That said, Hatton and Casey played really well and the market is undervaluing them simply because they lost, while DJ and Fowler won a match that would have been a lot closer if it wasn’t two-on-one vs. a Ryder Cup rookie.

The pick: Casey/Hatton +148