Sobel’s BMW Championship Betting Preview: Which Longshots Can Buck the Trend?

Aug 15, 2019 09:36 PM EDT

Joaquin Niemann could be worth a look at the Greenbrier. Brian Spurlock, USA Today Sports.

  • The 2019 FedEx Cup Playoffs continue this weekend at the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club.
  • The big guns have owned recent FedEx Cup events, but Jason Sobel thinks one longshot in this field has a chance to make a run.

As we prepare to break down this week’s BMW Championship, let’s take a look at the last 17 winners of FedEx Cup playoff events, dating back to the first start of the 2015 postseason:

Jason Day. Rickie Fowler. Jason Day (again). Jordan Spieth. Patrick Reed. Rory McIlroy. Dustin Johnson. Rory McIlroy (again). Dustin Johnson (again). Justin Thomas. Marc Leishman. Xander Schauffele. Bryson DeChambeau. Bryson DeChambeau (again). Keegan Bradley. Tiger Woods. Patrick Reed (again).

Anyone notice a trend?

Over the last half-decade, the playoffs have become the domain of the big boys. We can grouse about the FedEx Cup being clearly inferior to majors (duh) and the format rewarding the best players as opposed to just those who get hot at the right time (double duh), but there’s no bellyaching over the quality of fields and winners during this time.

Of the dozen different players who have claimed a title since the beginning of the 2015 playoffs, eight are major champions and none of the other four (Fowler, Leishman, Schauffele and DeChambeau) would be a surprise if they were to win one next year.

Even from the introduction of these events back in 2006, very rarely has an off-the-radar pick triumphed. Recently, there hasn’t been a Heath Slocum in the bunch — or should I say an Abraham Ancer or Harold Varner III, two talented-yet-still-winless players who finished in second and third place, respectively, last week.

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