Early 2019 British Open Betting, DFS Values: Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson, More
Photo credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Thomas and Webb Simpson
- Many people betting the 2019 British Open will lean heavily on name recognition to make their picks.
- Bryan Mears uses DFS salaries, implied odds to win and proprietary data to find value on this year's British Open field.
There are a lot of correlations in the betting and DFS golf world. For one, odds to win a major are often tied to not just skill, but also public popularity and history at that specific course or event.
That’s the reason for someone like Phil Mickelson (50-1) having higher odds to win the 2019 British Open than, say, Tony Finau (60-1), who is a superior golfer right now.
That’s notable within the DFS world because DraftKings and FanDuel salaries are really tied to a player’s odds to win — which, again, is subject to narratives and popularity rather than, you know, actual golfing ability.
In fact, there’s a 0.88 correlation (0 is no correlation, 1 is perfect correlation) between DraftKings salary and odds to win this year, which is incredibly significant:
That means there’s some significant value to be found in both the betting and DFS markets using a metric like our Long-Term Adjusted Round Score, which I believe is the best catch-all stat in the golf community. In general, a player with a lower LT Adj Rd Score is the superior golfer than one with a higher one.
For reference, there’s a lower 0.59 correlation between DraftKings salary and LT Adj Rd Score, which means in that difference there’s value. Additionally, there’s a 0.38 correlation between odds to win the British Open this year and LT Adj Rd Score. Again: sweet, sweet value.
Using all that data and running some regressions, we can predict based on a player’s LT Adj Rd Score — again, the best proxy for talent — what each golfer’s odds to win and DraftKings salaries should be. Let’s start with betting odds to win.