Early 2019 British Open Betting, DFS Values: Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson, More

Jul 15, 2019 09:45 AM EDT

Photo credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Thomas and Webb Simpson

  • Many people betting the 2019 British Open will lean heavily on name recognition to make their picks.
  • Bryan Mears uses DFS salaries, implied odds to win and proprietary data to find value on this year's British Open field.

There are a lot of correlations in the betting and DFS golf world. For one, odds to win a major are often tied to not just skill, but also public popularity and history at that specific course or event.

That’s the reason for someone like Phil Mickelson (50-1) having higher odds to win the 2019 British Open than, say, Tony Finau (60-1), who is a superior golfer right now.

That’s notable within the DFS world because DraftKings and FanDuel salaries are really tied to a player’s odds to win — which, again, is subject to narratives and popularity rather than, you know, actual golfing ability.

In fact, there’s a 0.88 correlation (0 is no correlation, 1 is perfect correlation) between DraftKings salary and odds to win this year, which is incredibly significant:

That means there’s some significant value to be found in both the betting and DFS markets using a metric like our Long-Term Adjusted Round Score, which I believe is the best catch-all stat in the golf community. In general, a player with a lower LT Adj Rd Score is the superior golfer than one with a higher one.

For reference, there’s a lower 0.59 correlation between DraftKings salary and LT Adj Rd Score, which means in that difference there’s value. Additionally, there’s a 0.38 correlation between odds to win the British Open this year and LT Adj Rd Score. Again: sweet, sweet value.

Using all that data and running some regressions, we can predict based on a player’s LT Adj Rd Score — again, the best proxy for talent — what each golfer’s odds to win and DraftKings salaries should be. Let’s start with betting odds to win.

Best Betting Values for the 2019 British Open

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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