Jennings and Sleeze: Our Favorite Matchups, DFS Plays and Bets for the Farmers Insurance Open
Michael Madrid, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kevin Tway
Every week, Peter Jennings and Drew "Sleezy Man" Stoltz will offer some insight on their favorite plays across the golf betting market. From matchup props to outright winners to DFS plays, here are their thoughts on this weekend's Farmer's Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. For more sweet, sultry betting advice for this tournament and an interview with 2019 Desert Classic champion Adam Long, download The Action Network Golf Podcast.
Favorite Tiger Woods Bet
Peter Jennings: Let's start with the reason we've all gathered here today. It's Tiger Woods' first tournament of 2019.
To me, betting Tiger to win outright is probably the worst bet on the board. In some books he is the outright favorite but in most places he is behind Jon Rahm. If you want to invest in Tiger take him at big plus in matchups vs Marc Leishman and Rory Mcllroy.
Sleeze: Tiger Woods to Finish Below 18th (-115)
Am I crazy for liking this prop bet? Or am I crazy like a fox? We all know that historically Tiger has had more success at Torrey Pines than any player on the planet, which is why this bet may seem out of place.
However, after talking with some players on-site, I’ve been told that the rough is as penal as they’ve ever ever seen it. The winner is going to be someone who drives the ball long, but also straight. Tiger only fills one of those criteria.
Combine Tiger’s accuracy woes with the strength of this field, the fact that it’s his first event of the year, and his less-than-perfect health this week, and I think a top 20 for Tiger is a tall task. I’m taking the other side.
Favorite DFS Play
Jennings and Sleeze: Kevin Tway on Draftkings $7,200
Tway has the 4th best bargain rating on Draftkings relative to his price on Fanduel. He also boasts a Long Term Driving Distance of 309.4 yards which is a key stat for this week.
Favorite Matchup Bets
Jennings and Sleeze: Alex Noren (-105) over Jordan Spieth
We spoke on the podcast and were all in agreement that Noren over Spieth is a good matchup bet this week. Torrey Pines is not the course to “find your game” and Spieth clearly isn’t right. Make sure to shop for the best price as Noren is -105 on MyBookie but -112 on Bookmaker in the same matchup vs Spieth.
Jennings: Cameron Champ (+101) over Patrick Reed
There is value in betting Cameron Champ +101 over Patrick Reed on Pinnacle when he is -122 on Bookmaker. As we discussed on the podcast, Champ is finally coming into a week under the radar. The bigger names are drawing attention and finally creating a bit of betting value for Champ. In addition, Champ's greatest asset is his length which is critical at Torrey Pines.
Our Favorite Longshots
Jennings: Hideki Matsuyama +6600
I think 2019 will be a redemption year for Matsuyama and 66-1 isn't a bad price.
Sleeze: Luke List +8700
You need a guy that bombs it at Torrey Pines and he does that.
Our Favorite Bet
Jennings: Noren (-105) over Spieth
Sleeze: Tiger Woods to Finish Below 18th (-115)
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