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Jennings: Top Market Movers for the 2019 PGA Championship

May 15, 2019 3:30 PM EDT
Credit:

John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: (left) Tommy Fleetwood, Francesco Molinari.

  • The 2019 PGA Championship tees off on Thursday at Bethpage Black.
  • Peter Jennings talks about the odds, the DFS market and which golfers he's bullish or bearish on heading into this weekend.

The 2019 PGA Championship is just a day away and the market is continuing to adjust as we get closer to Thursday’s first round.

I’ve already built a model hitting on studs to roster and longshots to target in DFS, but here I make the case for golfers whose odds have made some significant moves in either direction.

Bullish: Tommy Fleetwood

Fleetwood has moved from ~33-1 to as low as 19-1 in the outright markets. In addition, he is now -153 vs. Xander Schauffele, -159 vs. Francesco Molinari and is a slight favorite (-116) vs. Jason Day.

Fleetwood is a phenomenal value in DFS where his prices are obviously static. If we see cold and wet conditions at Bethpage, driving will be at a premium, which is Fleetwood’s biggest strength.

Bearish: Francesco Molinari

Molinari had bearish line movement for the Masters and almost won. Again, he is having bearish line movement for the PGA Championship. He started off at ~25-1 to win and is now ~32-1 to win. Molinari is +120 vs. Day, +129 vs. Fleetwood, +135 vs. Jon Rahm and +140 vs. Rickie Fowler.

On Draftkings, Molinari is priced at $9,700 followed by Rahm ($9500), Fowler ($9300), Fleetwood ($9200) and Day ($9000). The only bull case for Molinari on Draftkings is paying up to be contrarian. If you are bullish on him, fire away on these plus matchups.

Tiger Woods Movement

Tiger opened as the biggest favorite in the tournament both in matchups and in the outright markets. There were opportunities to get Rory McIlroy at even money vs. Tiger and now Rory is -160. Sharp money came in early in the week against Tiger and now is the time to back Tiger if you are bullish.

Woods was low owned in DFS for the Masters and could be lower owned in high stakes tournaments again. He is the most expensive golfer on Draftkings, which makes him an enticing “pay up to be contrarian” option. I am fading Tiger in lower stakes tournaments as he is the biggest name in golf.

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