Perry’s 2019 Porsche European Open Betting Guide: Big Names, Bigger Longshots
Adam Hagy, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Matt Kuchar
- The new PGA Tour season doesn't begin until Sept. 12, but there are plenty of big names participating in this week's 2019 European Open.
- Xander Schauffele is the betting favorite, but Josh Perry thinks there's better value down the board, including at the very bottom with a 1,000-1 longshot.
We’re a week away from a new PGA Tour season, but a few stars will be in action this week in Germany.
Xander Schauffele, Patrick Reed and Matt Kuchar are all scheduled to make the trip over for the Porsche European Open this week.
Green Eagle Golf Course will host the event for the third time. This track measures over 7,800 yards for a par 72. Despite that length, it wasn’t the bombers taking this tournament apart in the first two tournaments.
Jordan Smith and Richard McEvoy are past winners here and neither player is exceptionally long off the tee. Smith is around 300 yards on average, but his accuracy combined with that length off the tee set him apart. Meanwhile, McEvoy is one of the shortest hitters in Europe.
Accuracy will be necessary this week again due in large part to the amount of water in play. Golfers will have to steer clear of it on basically every hole. Because of that, I’ll be focus more on total driving than just length.
As mentioned, Smith has a great combo of length and accuracy and last year, Bryson DeChambeau appeared to have this tournament locked up before fading on Sunday and allowing McAvoy to sneak into the winner’s circle. But DeChambeau is another example of combing length and accuracy off the tee rather than just simply hitting it a mile.
Xander Schauffele is the favorite at 6-1 with Paul Casey right behind at +650. Patrick Reed is next in line at 8-1 with Matt Kuchar and Thomas Pieters coming in at around 15-1.
Of these guys, it’s Casey that I’m most worried about. Casey was third on the PGA Tour in total driving and has a strong approach game. He struggles to win on the PGA Tour with regularity, but that isn’t the case on the European circuit, where he’s won 13 times.
Outside of a few well-known names at the top, this is a pretty weak field, even for a European Tour event. Many of the regulars on tour are taking this week off leaving us with a mixed field event with players who are regulars on the Challenge Tour making up much of the bottom half.
We’ll start off with Alexander Levy at 40-1. Levy is the classic mix of good history and good form. The Frenchman played this event at Green Eagle twice, notching a runner-up and 13th-place finish. In terms of his current form, he’s got a couple of Top-20 finishes in his last three outings. Levy isn’t as long off the tee as I’d like, but he’s shown the ability to play well on this course.
In this range, I’ll also back Robert MacIntyre 66-1. He had a great Open Championship a couple months back, but the form has slipped a bit since then. But overall, his driving and approach games should be good fits for this course. He’s 17th in strokes gained: approach and 22nd in strokes gained: off the tee this season.
I’m going to take another chance with Hugo Leon at 200-1. He was fifth a few weeks ago when we backed the Chilean at the Czech Masters. He had a couple missed cuts at shorter courses that didn’t really fit his game, but this should be more of tee-to-green test, which suits his skill set.
Lastly, I’m going to the very bottom of the board with Max Orrin at 1,000-1. Anyone at this number isn’t going to have their game in good shape and that’s the case with Orrin, who has missed 13 of 18 cuts this year. That being said, Orrin has been solid off the tee this season, ranking inside the top 30 in both distance and accuracy. He’s also above average in Greens in Regulation.
He could be worth a look for a top-20 play once those odds come out. He’s very likely to miss the cut, but if there’s a course where he could get a result, this one might be it.
The European Open Card
- Alexander Levy +4000 (.83 units)
- Robert MacIntyre +6600 (.5 units)
- Hugo Leon +20000 (.17 units)
- Max Orrin +100000 (.03 units)