2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic Odds & Picks: Murphy’s Best Bets for Round 4 at El Camaleon
Hector Vivas/Getty Images. Pictured: Viktor Hovland.
The weather cooperated for the Mayakoba Classic on Saturday, allowing for a full day of golf with some great scoring conditions.
Emiliano Grillo went into the day with a four-shot lead but finished the day with just a one-shot advantage despite shooting a 3-under 69. Several players charged up the leaderboard, including Tom Hoge who was tied for second entering the day and will join Grillo again tomorrow just one shot behind.
Viktor Hovland will round out the threesome after his 63 pulled him into solo third at 14-under and two shots back. His round was matched by Adam Long, who sits in fourth.
Justin Thomas was the story of the day, firing a tournament-best 9-under 62 without a bogey on the card. He will undoubtedly have the final threesome watching his every move from the penultimate group just in front of them as the biggest threat to chase them down.
There is some rain expected on Sunday at El Camaleon Golf Club but with winds down and soft greens, much of the top end of the field is in play to win on Sunday afternoon. There are fourteen players within six shots of Grillo’s lead, and that’s where I would put my limit on those that could pull it off in the final round.
I stopped short of making Hovland a best bet yesterday and probably should’ve bought in at the +1600 as he came through, as expected. He was fantastic today from a DFS and matchup perspective, and he continues to be the most consistent player in the field.
If you didn’t bite on him to win, like me, you can certainly take the +300 available now on DraftKings before tomorrow’s final round.
Hovland hasn’t missed more than three greens in regulation in a round yet this week. His seven greens missed through 54 holes leads the field and on Saturday, he rolled in a few more putts on the way to his great 8-under round.
Viktor is looking for his second win on TOUR, and this would be a great stepping stone in his young career, as his other win was a secondary event in Puerto Rico.
As I mentioned in my DFS preview this week, Thomas was my clear No. 1 player and he has bounced back nicely after his opening-round 72. He’s put himself in position to make some noise on Sunday and if he can come out with a birdie or two in the first few holes, the leaders will surely notice.
I love the way JT has played over his past 36 holes, but it’s also his general presence that adds value to his +700 odds on BetMGM. He is the type of player that simply hates to lose and thinks of himself as a killer when he gets himself into these positions. The other players will be well aware of his position throughout the round, and the No. 3 player in the world has the ability to add a bit of a fear factor to their games as he moves up the board.
If I’m dropping down to the bottom of the top 14 players, my pick is going to be at +4500 on DraftKings with first round leader, Russell Knox. He’s come close at El Camaleon Golf Club in the past, with three top-10 finishes that include a runner-up in 2015.
Knox has played some of the most consistent golf this week, with his solid ball striking leading the way. He ranks eighth in driving accuracy and sixth in greens hit on the week, but his putter has left a few shots out there for him. Knox ranks just 79th with the flat stick on the week.
His odds make him attractive enough to take a shot from five shots behind, and his play backs it up. Knox noted following his Thursday round that it must be the tequila and tacos that are the keys to his golf game in Mexico, so hopefully he loads up tonight.
Let’s get one final winner to finish off the 2020 golf year, so we can roll into 2021 with some momentum!