2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic at El Camaleon Betting Picks: Our Favorite Outright Bets For the Tournament
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Henley
- Patton Kizzire. Harold Varner III. Russell Henley. Marc Leishman.
- Our golf staff has broken down their favorite bets to win the Mayakoba Classic outright this weekend.
- Check out their full break down for each of the four golfers below.
Dustin Johnson may have won the 2020 Masters as the second-favorite but the 2020/21 PGA TOUR season has belonged to longshots so far.
In fact, there have been six triple-digit winners since the new season started back in September (Robert Streb, Carlos Ortiz, Martin Laird, Brian Gay, Hudson Swafford and Stewart Cink), and two others (Sergio Garcia and Jason Kokrak) went off at 60/1 or longer.
Is the Mayakoba Classic setting up for another longshot winner? Or are we going to see one of the big names take down the field at El Camaleon?
Here are our favorite outright bets for the 2020 Mayakoba Classic:
Patton Kizzire (+7000)
This has largely been an autumn of underdogs, with Hudson Swafford, Martin Laird, Brian Gay and Robert Streb among the winners so far. With that in mind, I wanted to dig a little deeper below the surface to unearth a name this week – and Kizzire seemed to fit the profile.
For starters, he won this event three years ago, which follows a very Laird/Streb vibe, each of whom returned to the scene of a previous victory. There’s more to this pick than that, though. Kizzire has always been a momentum player, feeding off recent strong results to post even better ones.
When he won his first KFT title in 2015, it came after six top-10s in his previous nine starts – and then he won again three starts later. When he won at Mayakoba in 2017, it was preceded by a pair of top-10s – and then he won again three starts later.
This week, he’s fresh off finishes of 10th-11th in his last two events, his highest pair of consecutive results since that last victory. He’s clearly moving in the right direction and this feels like the right time to hop on that bandwagon.
Harold Varner III (+7000)
HV3 has been on the verge of victory a few times over the past couple of seasons but has never been able to finish the job.
Varner has a strong approach game that suits this course. He’s finished inside the top-six twice in four starts at El Camaleon. While his putter can hold him back at times, he’s gained strokes in four of his last six events.
There’s a lot to like about Varner at this number.
Russell Henley (+2200)
There aren’t many players who have played better than Russell Henley since the Return to Golf back in June.
Even though he still hasn’t won since 2017, Henley has racked up a handful of top-5 finishes, including in some top-end fields like the Northern Trust, CJ Cup and Zozo Championship.
This looks like a great spot for him to contend. El Camaleon doesn’t require much length and rewards good wedge play and when Henley is at his best it’s with a sharp approach game and top notch wedges.
He’s in great form on a course that sets up to be a solid fit. This price is pretty nice in a weaker field.
Marc Leishman (+5500)
Leishman had a rough couple of months after the Return to Golf, but the Aussie bounced back at The Masters with a 13th-place finish. If that form sticks, we are getting a massive discount on a top-10 talent in this field.
Leishman has four PGA TOUR wins since 2017 (and five overall), so the win equity is absolutely there. He has had some strong results on coastal paspalum courses including a win at the 2017 CIMB Classic (TPC Kuala Lumpur). He also finished 3rd at the 2019 Sony Open (Waiʻalae Country Club); an event where we have seen some obvious leaderboard similarities.
Two of the past three winners at Mayakoba have also won the Sony Open (Kizzire and Kuchar), so Leishman’s success at Wai’alae should prove valuable at El Camaleon.