2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Odds & Picks for Mito Pereira, Jason Day, More

This is going to be a weird week.

The famed AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will feature just one player ranked inside the world’s top-10 (Patrick Cantlay), two others inside the top-20 (Jordan Spieth and Daniel Berger) and a total of 10 inside the top-50.

Lengthy rounds with amateur partners on three courses in often-chilly conditions has often kept the Clambake from featuring a wide assortment of the game’s elite players, but those numbers are especially down this week, as the Saudi International has essentially doubled-up on the talent level.

Perhaps that means more of an edge for those few superstars who made the trip to the Monterey Peninsula. Perhaps it offers an advantage to the handful of players who tend to play well here every single year. Or perhaps it just opens the door for a longshot, which wouldn’t be uncharacteristic.

In each of the last three even-numbered years of this tourney, a triple-digit outright has prevailed: Vaughn Taylor (200/1) in 2016, Ted Potter, Jr. (300/1) in 2018 and Nick Taylor (125/1) in 2020.

I’m not dipping quite that far for my favorite outright play, but I am passing on those short numbers at the top of the board this week. Let’s get right to it.

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Outright Winner

One player to win the tournament.

Mito Pereira (+5000)

Last summer, after a three-win Korn Ferry campaign launched an in-season promotion to the big leagues, Pereira was seemingly everybody’s favorite to strike while his irons were hot and win at the next level, too. It hasn’t happened yet, but with a solo third at the Fortinet, T-4 at the Olympics, T-5 at the Barbasol and T-6 at the 3M, he’s come close enough to affirm our collective feelings about his abilities.

While he hasn’t played this specific event before, his third KFT win similarly came at a pro-am event, which at least suggests he won’t be a fish-out-of-water this week.

And then there’s this, which has proven to be an effective and predictive way of finding winners over the first month of this year: Hideki Matsuyama finished T-13 in his first start of 2022, then won the next week in his second start; Hudson Swafford finished T-48 in his first start, then won the next week; Luke List finished T-22 before winning; and now there’s Pereira, who made his first appearance of the year at Torrey Pines and finished a solid T-25. It makes sense, as we’re targeting those who are neither playing a third week in a row, nor contended at their first start (but didn’t MC, either).

Essentially, the formula shows that four rounds of reps have been a nice stepping stone to success. Coming off a typical above-average tee-to-green performance, the man who ranks seventh in strokes gained on approach shots should give himself plenty of opportunities on three of the shorter host venues we’ll see all season.

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Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done options.

Jason Day (+2000)

There’s an excellent chance you entered this calendar year with Day nowhere on the radar screen for OAD plays and one month in, you’re looking at his performance at Torrey, his history at Pebble and thinking, “How can I not take him this week?”

You won’t be alone — and for good reason. It doesn’t matter where Day has been in his career arc — whether he’s one of the game’s best or struggling to cash checks — he annually shows up at this event and plays his best golf. In a dozen career starts, he owns a mind-boggling eight top-10s and in the last seven, his results read like this: 7th-4th-4th-2nd-5th-11th-4th.

That would be hard to ignore if he hadn’t shown any form yet this year, but on the heels of a title contention, he makes too much sense. I can understand if bettors don’t want to pay up after the outright price increased so much this week, yet OADers will undoubtedly chase the form/history intersection in droves.

Maverick McNealy (+2800)

If you’re not picking Day, then you’re likely considering McNealy. Similar story here: McNealy shared runner-up honors last year and was T-5 the previous year. Coming off a leaderboard run for three days at Torrey, which probably doesn’t suit his game as well as this week’s rotation of courses, this feels like a slam-dunk big week.

He’s a guy I had targeted months ago as a potential outright play at this one, but — again, like Day — that recent performance (along with a few others) has dropped the price to a much less palatable one.

I certainly won’t talk anyone into betting Mav to win this one, as I do think he’s on the verge of bigger and better things, but I think he’s most valuable as an OAD piece.

Daniel Berger (+1100)

If you’re not picking Day or McNealy, then you’re likely considering Berger. And yeah, similar to the previous two players listed, Boog is playing well and loves this tourney.

The defending champion finished T-5 and T-10 in his two previous starts here and is carrying some obvious momentum into this one, with results of 20th-5th-7th-8th in his last four starts. He also works as a DFS anchor, if you want to pivot away from Patrick Cantlay.

Jordan Spieth (+2000)

If you’re not picking Day, McNealy or Berger, then you’re likely considering Spieth. This is one of those weeks when I’d expect most OAD selections to be less spread out than usual, instead concentrated between these four players.

Those going with Spieth are playing history and fading form, as the new dad finished DFL at the Hero in December and has followed by being outside the top half at the Sentry TOC and missing the cut at the Farmers.

That said, the AT&T-logoed star shows up for this one every year, posting five top-10s and eight top-25s in nine career starts.

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Top-Five

One player to finish top-five.

Justin Rose (+400 at DraftKings)

To be frank, I was surprised to see Rose in the field this week. He finished runner-up at the Saudi International last year and competing there this week might have some special interest for a 41-year-old who, based on his numerous commercial appearances, isn’t afraid to take a paycheck from anyone.

Instead, he’s chosen to play at Pebble for the first time in five years, which seems like a definitive statement. Kudos to him for the decision and perhaps some karma points will be available.

One of the underrated hard workers in the game, Rose appears committed to playing some of his best golf on the back-nine of his career. Fresh off a final-round 4-under 68 that left him in a share of sixth place at Torrey, I like him to finish at least one spot higher against a less ferocious field of fellow competitors.

Top-10

One player to finish top-10.

Cameron Tringale (+250 at DraftKings)

If there’s a silver lining for regular close-but-no-cigar finisher Tringale, it’s that his share of third place at Torrey Pines last week — one shot out of the playoff — came at the heels of Luke List, another long-time nearly-man who finally burst through for his first win.

List is now in the Masters field and Seamus Power’s much-ballyhooed attempt for a first invitation shows him at 50th in the OWGR right now. But perhaps just as intriguing is Tringale’s bid, as he moved from 58th to 49th this week, trying to get into the year’s first major for the first time in seven years.

As for this week, it took Tringale 10 tries to finish top-10 here, but he finally bagged a T-7 last year, thanks to bookend 67s. Swinging it well right now, I like him to have another one of those close-but-no-cigar finishes, as he’s finished top-10 in three of his last five starts dating back to the fall part of the schedule.

Top-20

One player to finish top-20.

Kevin Streelman (+180 at DraftKings)

Why do I like Streels for a top-20 this week? Well, maybe it has a little something to do with the fact that he hasn’t finished outside of the top-20 at this event in the past six years. With results of 13th-2nd-7th-6th-14th-17th during that time, he might be best grouped in with the chalky course-horses in the above OAD section, but I still believe there’s some value on him for this prop.

With trusty sidekick Larry Fitzgerald again by his side — they’ve won two of the last three pro-am portions of this event (there was no pro-am last year) — you’d better believe Streelman turns it on as much for himself as his teammate. Some guys are really team-sport athletes trapped in a golfer’s body. Based on how he’s stepped up in this one, that could very well be the case.

Top-30

One player to finish top-30.

Brandon Harkins

If you’re digging around a little, you’ll find that Harkins is fresh off a Korn Ferry victory last week. That might not be enough to catch your attention, but dig deeper and you’ll find more. Harkins has played Pebble twice before, finishing T-15 in 2018 and T-28 the following year.

Need more? He won last year’s TaylorMade Pebble Beach Invitational by two strokes, posting a four-round total of 21-under that was the lowest winning score in four decades. In fact, nearly all of his best results have come in West Coast events, so if we’re ever going to target him, this feels like the right spot.

I also like that while he just won the Bahamas Great Abaco Classic, it concluded on Wednesday, so he’s had some extra time to overcome any physical and mental exhaustion that comes with winning. I certainly don’t mind top-10/20 plays on him, too.

Top-40

One player to finish top-40.

David Lipsky (+230 at DraftKings)

Taking a shot here — although, honestly, if a few of your top-40 plays aren’t of the taking-a-shot variety, then you might be doing it wrong.

Lipsky only has one top-40 finish in his last seven starts — a T-14 at the Sony — but he’s won on the DP World Tour, the Asian Tour and the Korn Ferry, so he’s a proven talent who knows how to climb a leaderboard. He also tends to play some of his best golf on shorter courses, so he should have a bit of an edge this week.

Some more impressive recent results might’ve had me taking more of a chance than top-40, but he could similarly provide some DFS value, too.

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS.

Patrick Cantlay

Don’t overthink this one: Not only is Cantlay the most talented player in this week’s field, as I wrote prior to The AmEx, he isn’t the type of superstar who will enter an event without pressing down on the gas pedal.

He was recently asked about trying to peak at certain times during the year and said this: “I think prepping for every tournament as best as you can and not playing too many events, so you're not wiped out mentally and physically, gives you the best chance to perform at your best every time you tee it up. I think it would be really, really hard to bring it as hard as you could or peak if you played 35 weeks out of the year. So, the way I think about it is to play less, but have more quality starts and I don't give much thinking about peaking or not peaking particular weeks.”

If we take these words at their literal meaning, we can presume that he’s treating this week with the same importance and relevance that he’ll treat the Masters. I understand that such a translation might be missing some nuance, but the original point remains: He’s the best player in the field and he's going to bring his best stuff this week. That’s tough to ignore.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS.

Matt Kuchar

This should be a week where differentiation is key, as the big names and course-horses should take on plenty of ownership. Kuchar doesn’t count as the former anymore and has never really been the latter, but he could be a solid contrarian play this week.

He only owns one career top-10 in 14 starts at Pebble, but also has just a single MC at this event in his last eight tries. With a T-7 at the Sony Open in his first start of the year, there are signs the 43-year-old still has some very good golf in him and experience on these shorter tracks should all be to his benefit.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low score Thursday.

Tom Hoge

For the third consecutive week, I’ll begin this category of the preview with a caveat: There are three courses in the rotation this week, so your book will (likely) separate players based on this, rather than lump them all together.

Last year, with no pro-am portion of the event, Pebble Beach played 1.536 strokes easier than Spyglass Hill over the first two rounds and Monterey Peninsula CC wasn’t used. Two years ago, with all three courses being used for the first three rounds, MPCC played to a 69.690 scoring average, Pebble was 71.677 and Spyglass was 72.877.

As I’m writing before tee times have been released, I’ll be keeping a strong eye on Hoge, who’s broken 70 in each of his last five opening rounds and is just two weeks removed from a runner-up finish at The AmEx.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players.

Keith Mitchell (+8000)

There’s going to be a week when I peruse the field list and somehow leave Mitchell’s name out of my preview and you’d better believe that’s going to be the week when he wins.

While I’m extremely bullish on Mitchell for the entire year, I’m less bullish on him this week, as he’s yet to post a top-30 finish in four starts. Consider this more of a CYA mention, because I absolutely know I’m going to get burned when I fail to play him at some point.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value.

Brian Harman (+5000), Aaron Rai (+5000), Matthew NeSmith (+8000), Min Woo Lee (+8000), Brandt Snedeker (+10000), Doc Redman (+15000), Tyler Duncan (+20000), Kurt Kitayama (+25000)

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The Big Fade

One top player to avoid at this tournament.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+3300)

I really didn’t know what to do with Fitzpatrick this week. I wanted to play him — at least for a top-10 — thinking he could start 2022 with some Zalatoris-like vibes, because I do believe this is going to be a big year for him. (And it’s hard not to love that initial price.)

Instead, I can’t get around four things:

1. He hasn’t played a competitive event in two full months; as we’ve seen in recent weeks, those who have previously shaken off the rust tend to own a distinct advantage over those who haven’t.

2. He’s mentioned on social media that he went through some swing changes; even if they’re subtle, it might take some time for them to come to fruition.

3. In two previous starts at Pebble, he’s hardly offered much reason for optimism, with a missed cut three years ago, a T-60 two years ago and only one sub-70 score in three rounds on these courses.

4. The winner here has finished at least 15-under in all but one edition of this tourney since 2008, but Fitz has often insisted that he plays his best golf at the toughest tests, which explains previous strong results at Bay Hill, Muirfield Village and Riviera.

In fact, I’ve got him eyed up for the last of those two weeks from now, as he finished top-five at the Genesis last year. This should be a solid campaign and one which could include his first PGA TOUR victory (he owns seven on DP World Tour), but I think it really gets going in two weeks, not this one.

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