2022 Houston Open: Value on Patrick Rodgers in Head-to-Head Market

We are slowly getting through the first 36 holes of the Houston Open, though play had to be halted for the second straight day before the conclusion of the round — this time because of inclement weather that forced a sudden suspension for nearly half the field.

Tony Finau holds a four-shot lead at 13-under par and there are only 13 players within seven shots of first place. None of that suggests we don't still have a long way to go, since this course can spring trouble on you before you know what happened. However, it will be a crucial Saturday for the field if they want to close the gap on the American.

If you aren't doing so already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There I will provide my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings for golf. That sheet is free and released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

Round 3 Head-To-Head:

Patrick Rodgers (-110) over Mackenzie Hughes (DraftKings)

I've advocated finding fade opportunities against Mackenzie Hughes this week in all markets and while we haven't had anything come to fruition yet — my pre-tournament bet of Davis Riley over Hughes enters the weekend one back — the data continues to paint a scary picture for the Canadian, even if the results are holding steady inside of the top 10 on the leaderboard.

Some of this data is flawed since numerous players still need to complete their first 36 holes, but the image below is every golfer in this field who is negative when it comes to ball striking, but still projected to make the cut.

Options like Maverick McNealy and Hideki Matsuyama were strong enough choices pre-tournament that I wouldn't hold it too much against them entering Saturday, but the caution comes into play for anyone failing to crack the top 50 of my model at this point.

Hughes' negative-2.95 mark through two rounds places him as not only the worst ball-striker in the entire field for someone who is going to make the weekend, but he is also the only golfer losing over a shot who is inside the top 20 of the leaderboard.

There is nothing concrete to say the 31-year-old won't continue to run above expected value with his short-game metrics again — especially since his around-the-green touch is one of his strengths — but my model has been projecting this red flag output from him for multiple days, meaning we get another chance to grab a matchup against him at a price that remains enriched because of the faulty creation of data. I love when those opportunities present themselves and if Hughes can continue to maintain his short-game magic, I will tip my cap to him.