2022 Shriners Children’s Open Updated Odds & Sleeper Picks: 5 Longshots to Bet, Featuring Matthew NeSmith & K.H. Lee

The final fall series on the PGA TOUR as we know it, before major formatting and scheduling changes begin next season, rolls on with the Shriners Children’s Open in Las Vegas.

Patrick Cantlay tees it up as a heavy favorite, with odds as low as +600 at certain books. He’s earned that here in Sin City, where he has finished T8 or better the last four times he’s played this event, including a win and two runner-up finishes.

Those are short odds for any favorite, especially with other notable names like defending champion Sungjae Im, Max Homa, Aaron Wise, and Tom Kim in the field.

For the purposes of this post, however, our eyes are dipping further down the board in search of a sleeper. Longshots have fared well at this venue, with wins by Martin Laird, Rod Pampling, Smylie Kaufman, and Ben Martin in the last decade.

A hungry group of rookies and veterans jockeying for early FedEx Cup points makes for plenty of intriguing dark horses with long odds, particularly these names I like to compete on Sunday:

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Tom Hoge +5000 (DraftKings)

These odds are shorter than the picks I typically feature in this weekly article, yet I couldn’t ignore Hoge at this number. Last season, he elevated himself to new heights. Hoge ranks inside the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings after five top 10s in 24 events so far in 2022, which is impressive after he recorded just eight total top 10s in the four-year stretch from 2018 to 2021.

Hoge’s season hit a speed bump with six straight missed cuts between the Charles Schwab Challenge and The Open, yet he rebounded and ended the season 10^th at the TOUR Championship, shooting the fifth-best gross score at East Lake to boost his end of season payout.

He started the new season well, finishing T12 in Napa, and has a track record of success here at TPC Summerlin. In three of his last four starts at this course, Hoge has finished T24 or better. Given the way he’s playing, he has value this far down the board.

Rickie Fowler +6600 (BetMGM)

The 2022 FedEx Cup season was mostly a wash for the once-vaunted star, but he showed enough flashes to suggest there will be better days ahead. The Rick-aissance is coming, and this venue would be a perfect host.

Fowler enters hot off a T6 at the Fortinet Championship, his best finish in a full calendar year. He carries that momentum into a course where he has two prior top 10s and two more top 25 finishes.

Rickie hasn’t won on TOUR since 2019, with just one top-three finish during that drought. He already has as many top-20 finishes in the 2023 season (one) as he did in the entire 2022 season. If we’re going to see him bounce back to life at all, maybe he does so in a big way, collecting a win at a course where he’s typically played well.

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Seamus Power +6600 (BetMGM)

The 35-year-old Irishman played the best golf of his career last season. In the 2022 FedEx Cup season, Power finished in the top 25 in 13 of his 27 starts. His Strokes Gained per round was also more than triple his previous best season as a pro.

Unfortunately, he was unable to convert that play into a victory, or even a runner-up finish, peaking with a T3 at the Sony Open.

If he continues to knock on that door, eventually he will break through. Last season in Vegas, Power had his best tournament in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach but couldn’t convert with his putter. If he swings the club that well again, he’ll be in the mix throughout the weekend.

K.H. Lee +6600 (BetMGM)

Entering the fall, Lee was an undervalued member of the PGA TOUR. He won last year at the Byron Nelson and finished the season in style, qualifying for the TOUR Championship with a T20 at FedEx St. Jude and a T5 at the BMW.

He became a little less under the radar as one of the catalysts of the International Team’s feisty push to steal the Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow last month. Lee was one of only three members of his team to end the week with a winning record, even though he only was asked to play three of the five sessions.

The Shriners will be his first start of the 2023 season, and he is hoping to best his T14 finish last year.

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Matthew NeSmith +8000 (DraftKings)

You can do plenty of cherry picking with the autumn events on the PGA TOUR, given how up-and-down the fields are from year to year. Cherry-picked or not, only one player can boast a top-20 finish at TPC Summerlin in each of the last three years – Matthew NeSmith.

He’s played 12 rounds at this course in his career and never shot worse than 69, with a round of 65 or better in each of his last three appearances. That should make him an intriguing first-round-leader play, yet he’s playing well enough to think that can last through the weekend.

NeSmith was T9 last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship, where he was third in Strokes Gained: Approach.

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