2022 Wells Fargo Championship Odds, Picks, DFS Plays: 3 Players to Target at TPC Potomac

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We had a couple of sweats on Sunday at the Mexico Open, but nobody was catching Jon Rahm. While he was clearly the best golfer in the field and while it felt like it was only a matter of time before he found himself back in the winner's circle, betting on golf outrights at +350 is not a strategy that is going to work in the long run.

Charles Howell III had a good chance to finish in the top 10, but he had one of his worst putting weeks in the last few years. The one positive was Lanto Griffin, who shot one of the low Sunday rounds to finish in a tie for 15th.

This week, we head to Maryland for the Wells Fargo Championship. Quail Hollow is preparing to host this year's Presidents Cup, so TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms will host the event this year.

The last time we saw this course on the PGA TOUR was in 2017 and '18 at the Quicken Loans. The par-70 track has since been lengthened to 7,160 yards. There are only two par fives on the course, and only one will be reachable in two by the majority of the field.

While we don't have a huge sample size to work with, this course has favored accurate drivers of the ball and those that are precise with their irons. With three long par threes and a number of par fours that measure over 450 yards, we can expect a lot of approach shots to be hit from 175-225 yards. Proximity with long irons is certainly an intriguing stat to look at this week given the small bentgrass green complexes.

The course should favor ball strikers that don't rely on distance and it's nice to see that the two winners here in 2017 and '18 were Kyle Stanley and Francesco Molinari, both of whom are known more for their ball striking than short game.

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Favorite Outright: Corey Conners +2000

If Conners pulls off the win this week, we can officially call this a ball striker's paradise. Much like Stanley and Molinari, Conners has never been known for his prowess on and around the greens.

With that said, he does deserve some credit. His around the green game has improved in leaps and bounds this season and he's around average on the greens. He's top five in this field in good drive percentage, strokes gained ball striking, and greens in regulation. The difficulty of the course and the size of the greens should help highlight his ball-striking skills.

Favorite Top-10: Adam Svensson +2000

I was planning to bet on Svensson before I saw his top-10 odds, so was running to the metaphorical betting counter when I saw he was +2000 on DraftKings. The other major sportsbooks all have this number between +1000 and +1300.

Svensson has struggled with consistency, but has two top 10s in his last 11 TOUR starts. I mentioned the importance of iron play above and in 2022, Svensson is 11th in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach and first in this field in proximity from 175-225 yards.

Favorite DFS Value: Brian Harman $7,700 DraftKings / $9,900 FanDuel

There was a point last season when Harman rated out as the best value play in my model for months straight. He didn't disappoint either, as he went on a crazy made cut run that featured a ton of top-25 finishes.

After a stretch of bad form to start the year, Harman is finally playing like himself again. He has gained strokes off the tee in six straight events and still has one of the best short games on the PGA TOUR. His irons can be hit or miss, but we should be willing to bet on them at this price point.

The lefty tends to play his best on par-70s and courses that don't require distance off the tee — like this one.

Good luck!

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