2023 Golf Major Championship Lookahead: Find Value on Poorly Priced Players at the Masters, More
Andrew Redington/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Homa.
With the 2022 major season in the books, the odds for the 2023 schedule are already up at most places.
My major cards tend to be done well in advance with room to tack on maybe one or two more guys the week of the event, but overall, I think the edge is monitoring these numbers throughout the year and slowly accumulating talent as they round into form.
I was able to grab three of the four winners this year months ahead of time at numbers larger than where they closed. That's not the norm obviously, it just happened to be a good year for the younger talent to breakthrough. Those are the players that offer value early. Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, ect. are known commodities. Books aren't going to offer value on them ever until it's the week of the event and when the form's off.
But guys like Matt Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Smith were all on the fringe of major talk early in the 2022 season. We could see them round into form at various times and jump in at much better odds than they ended up closing. Then with a lot of luck, they peaked at the right times.
With those players, I don't really know where they'll pop up, so I'll tend to bet them at a group of majors rather than cherry pick since the odds tend to be similar.
I had Scheffler at all four. Smith I had everywhere but the Masters, since his odds were lower there with his track record. Fitzpatrick was added after Augusta but left off the Open card since the Brits all have lower odds before that one than they do at the American majors. Shane Lowry was another guy I played in this way at three spots, missing the Open where he was a previous champion with much lower odds.
The risk with this is obviously injury. I had Paul Casey and Harris English withdraw before the Masters, and Louis Oosthuizen joined them shortly after the first round.
Heading into the next year, we'll keep an eye on the next crop of players who might have another level in them. Guys like Max Homa, Sam Burns, Cameron Young, Davis Riley and Mito Pereira are still at good numbers. They've all shown the ability to play well in major championships, and if they rack up some wins early in 2023, a la Smith and Scheffler, they'll be worth looking at.
As for right now, the only thing I'm actually betting this far out is something I think is just completely wrong.
The only bet I've found like that to this point is Homa 120-1 for the Masters at FanDuel. He's between 66-1 and 80-1 most other places and is lined up here with guys like Phil Mickelson. He's almost double the price of players like Abraham Ancer and Casey, who are unlikely to even qualify with the switch to LIV.
Homa a proven TOUR winner and has started to find some better results in the majors as well. He's also got much lower odds in the +5000s at the U.S. Open and PGA Championships, despite those fields being larger and deeper.
LIV Golf Factor
I'm completely avoiding anyone even rumored with LIV, including players like Smith and Hideki Matsuyama with these early plays. They may have their exemptions, but until that's all cleared up, and their futures along with the rest of that tour are finalized, there's just no point in risking it.
This is another reason why Homa is the only play so far. He seems tied to the PGA TOUR and has locked up his Masters qualification with the Wells Fargo win earlier in the year.
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
