Dell Technologies Championship: Looking for a long shot
As I’ve mentioned throughout the playoffs, picking guys in the triple digits can be futile.
It’s been 11 tournaments over a three-year stretch since one found the winners circle during the FedEx Cup when Chris Kirk took down this event in 2014 at 150/1.
But with the top players winning these events at such a consistent rate, it leaves some good players further down the board at much bigger numbers than we’re used to seeing.
I’m going to start off this portion of my card with Phil Mickelson, who is 140/1.
Mickelson probably hasn’t been over a 100/1 to win any golf tournament, since taking down his first tour win as an amateur in 1991. He also hasn’t won since 2013 at the Open Championship, so it’s understandable why this number is showing up.
He doesn’t have great form recently, but hit the basic requirements in Strokes Gained and Par 5 Scoring that I’m looking for. His recent form at TPC Boston hasn’t been great either, but he has won here before in 2007 and has a couple other top 10s.
The primary reason I’ll be backing him though is his motivation level this week. I think we’ll get a peak Phil performance because he’s looking to earn a President’s Cup bid or show he’s worthy of a captain’s pick in the final week of qualification. I don’t know if he can get to that level anymore to actually win one of these events, but with the focus there, I’ll pay to find out at that price.
One other player I like from this range is Francesco Molinari at 100/1. He finished in second at the PGA Championship so he is capable of competing in these elite fields from time to time.
I’m also going to back Gary Woodland (100/1), Charl Schwartzel (125/1) and Kyle Stanley (160/1) as well. They are just guys whose overall talent level is better than the numbers they’re being given. That again comes from the dominance by the players at the top of the board.
With these guys, I’m also looking to add them in Top 5 and Top 10 plays. Most of them are available in the 20-25/1 range with no dead heat rules.
I really didn’t see any pre-tournament matchups or props that I liked, but I will be playing first round leaders. I’m targeting the PM wave because the morning is chilly by golf standards with temperatures expected in the low to mid 50s for much of the morning with wind in the 10 mph range. The afternoon may see a little more wind, but it will get much warmer, closer to 70, and I think that wave of guys will just be more comfortable with the conditions.
I’m going to play the above list for a quarter unit each.
Joshua has spent the last five years writing about sports and the last 10 years betting them, mostly on golf. One of approximately five people who will watch the PGA over the NFL in November. Follow him on Twitter @JoshuaPerry22
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