Best Golf Props to Bet for the WGC-Mexico Championship
In this loaded World Golf Championship field (it’s the level below a major), it’s very hard to nail down the winner. I mean, we still gave you a ton of information on the course, geography, stats, and more to improve your chances, but I understand that longshot future bets aren’t for everyone. So, let’s dive into a few head-to-head props and use our FantasyLabs metrics to pick the best bet:
- Justin Rose vs. Phil Mickelson
- Ross Fisher vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Kevin Chappell vs. Rafael Cabrera-Bello
- Brendan Steele vs. Kevin Kisner
Justin Rose (-140) over Phil Mickelson
Since missing the cut at the PGA Championship in August, Rose (pictured above) has played an interesting mix of PGA and Euro events. That’s helped him fly under the radar, as he’s currently on a near-unprecedented tear:
He has not finished outside of the top-22 in each of his past 10 events, during which he’s won twice. The key characteristics for this course: long off the tee but also excellent striking the ball. There aren’t many players in the world with that combination, but Rose is one of them. In particular, his Long Term GIR of 71.0 percent ranks sixth in the field, and his Recent GIR of 74.3 percent comes in at third overall. Phil is a fine player, but Rose is as hot as they come.
Ross Fisher (-115) over Matthew Fitzpatrick
Speaking of striking the ball well, Fisher ranks second in this loaded field with both his 73.8 percent LT GIR and 75.0 percent Recent GIR. He’s not short, either (301.1 LT Driving Distance), and he should get an extra boost with the Mexico City elevation. Fisher’s issue has always been his putting, which is a random variable to predict and didn’t show to be particularly important for success last year. Speaking of last year’s tournament, Fisher finished third. Fitz is coming off a missed the cut at last week’s Dubai Desert Classic, which isn’t a great sign for this week.
Kevin Chappell (+100) vs. Rafael Cabrera-Bello
One thing that stood out when looking at the metrics from last year’s event was the importance of recent play. The golfers in the best recent form, especially when it came to ball-striking and driving, did better. In other words, Chapultepec is not a place a golfer to “get right” — at least based on last year’s data. Chappell has been excellent of late: His 68.2 Recent Adjusted Round Score sits sixth in the field. Rafa, meanwhile, hasn’t finished in the top-25 in each of his past three events, and he’s been very up and down with his driver of late. That could spell trouble on this course. I’m not quite sure why he’s listed as the favorite over Chappell.
Brendan Steele (-130) vs. Kevin Kisner
Steele has a win and another top-three already this season on Tour, and he’s been especially impressive of late driving the ball, which, again, was an important indicator last year. Kis, on the other hand, is at a big distance disadvantage and is playing very poorly right now. He’s missed each of his past two cuts, and he shot an atrocious first-round 79 at last week’s Honda Classic. This is a “free-money” event — there’s no cut, as the Playing the Tips guys detailed on their pod — and our Tour guru Drew Stoltz wondered whether Kisner would even be playing in this one if it wasn’t for that fact. Steele seems easy here.
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