Three Golf Props to Bet for the 2018 Honda Classic

In a field of 144 golfers, it is incredibly difficult to nail down the winner of the tournament. I mean, we still gave you a ton of information on the course, weather, stats, and more to improve your chances, but I understand that longshot future bets aren't for everyone. So, let's dive into a few head-to-head props and use our FantasyLabs metrics to pick the best bet:

• Jason Dufner vs. Dylan Frittelli
• Ryan Palmer  vs. Tiger Woods
• Charles Howell III vs. Bud Cauley

Jason Dufner (-130) over Dylan Frittelli

Frittelli has weird odds this week. For example, he is the favorite at +160 to be the best South African player ahead of Louis Oosthuizen at +200. However, those two have a matchups prop against one another, and Louis is the favorite at -170 versus Frittelli's +130 odds. That's not a perfect arbitrage situation, but it is something. The matchup I'm eyeing: Frittelli vs. Dufner, who is coming into the tournament playing very well. Duf is tied for second in the field in Recent Birdies Per Tournament, and he's averaged just five bogeys per tournament in that span (past six weeks). That's obviously not a huge sample size, but his long term form also stands out. At Labs, we have a proprietary metric called Adjusted Round Score, defined as the average adjusted strokes per round; adjustments are made to account for the difficulty of the course and strength of the field. It is perhaps the best metric in golf to measure a golfer’s talent or performance — the best players in the world have the lowest Long Term Adjusted Round Scores. Duf's 69.2 Long Term Adjusted Round Score dwarfs Frittelli's very mediocre mark of 70.8.

Ryan Palmer (-140) over Tiger Woods

You can want Tiger to be back to his old self as much as you want, but until that happens, keep riding the prop market to a couple extra bucks every week. Tiger missed the cut last week at the Genesis Open, and the way he did it isn't exactly encouraging. Tiger was fine distance-wise and putted well, but he was spraying the ball, hitting just 44.4 percent of Greens in Regulation (GIR) and only 46.4 percent of his fairways. Crisp ball-striking is an absolute must this week with windy weather expected at PGA National. Palmer has played very well of late, and he's been especially solid in the ball-striking metrics.

Charles Howell III (-130) over Bud Cauley

Speaking of ball-strikers and guys who can grind on any course, I want to buy Howell this week. He doesn't win very often, which likely underrates him publicly, but the guy just never misses cuts. He has missed just 12 percent of his cuts over the past year — a top-five mark in this field — and he's third this week among players with at least 20 starts over the past year in percentage of weeks in which he's exceeded his salary-based expectations on DraftKings. Cauley is likely a tad underrated as well, but he's definitely more boom-or-bust. He's missed 32 percent of his cuts over the past year, and his 69.7 LT Adj Rd Score is inferior to Howell's 69.4 mark. Howell will be incredibly popular in DFS tournaments, which hurts his fantasy value, so it could be wise to expand your portfolio on him using the props market.

Photo credit Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports