Waste Management Open: How to Bet the Fourth Round
Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports
It’s hard to imagine a better leaderboard heading into a final round from both a betting and viewing perspective than what awaits on Sunday at TPC Scottsdale.
Rickie Fowler closed with birdies on his final three holes to finish at 14-under par and take a one-shot lead into the final round over Jon Rahm. Those two are the clear favorites after 54 holes, with Fowler checking in at +225 and Rahm at +330. Chez Reavie (12-1) and Bryson DeChambeau (10-1) are also tied with Rahm a shot behind Fowler.
We also have a pair of our mid-tier plays from The Action Network’s tournament preview, Xander Schauffele and Daniel Berger, in a tie for fifth with Phil Mickelson, two shots back.
My plan for Sunday is to be patient and see what options I have on the back nine. With Fowler, Xander and Berger on the card, we’re in a spot where we might be able to find a good hedge situation. The only problem is there are another half-dozen guys right now who can claim this tournament.
With Fowler and Rahm at the top, it’s hard to imagine one of them not shooting something in the 67 or 68 range. As a result, you’re looking at 17-under being the likely number to have a chance at a playoff. Couple that with a 64 being the low round shot this week, and it appears unlikely that anyone worse than 11 under can win this outright.
Right now, there are too many options to make a true hedge unless you can find a Fowler vs. the Field bet where the field would be in the -275 to -300 range. That could lock in a profit and give a rare middle chance if Berger or Schauffele win.
If you want to jump in fresh ahead of the final day, Reavie at 12-1 would be worth a look. Reavie is leading the field in the tee to green stats. He’s routinely one of the best ball strikers on tour, but his putter is rarely up to par. This week, however, Reavie isn’t losing strokes with the putter. Instead, he’s hovering slightly above the field average. That has the Scottsdale resident and Arizona State alum within a shot instead of his usual spot in the 20th to 30th place range. If he can find a slightly above average round with the putter, he could be the one to steal a win from the superstars.
Normally I’d have a matchup or two for the final day. Right now, I’m just not seeing anything I’m in love with, and I want to keep as much of the bankroll free as I can with the potential hedge situations on Sunday.
If you’re looking for guys to back, I’d consider Ollie Schniederjans or Francesco Molinari in head-to-heads and try to fade Patton Kizzire. Ollie and Molinari having been giving themselves plenty of birdie looks, but haven’t really got the putters going so far. Kizzire had trouble on Saturday with the iron game and is usually weak off the tee to begin with.
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Joshua has spent the last five years writing about sports and the last 10 years betting them, mostly on golf. He’s one of approximately five people who will watch the PGA over the NFL in November. Follow him on Twitter @JoshuaPerry22