Wells Fargo Matchup Props: Targeting Two Underdogs and a Favorite
Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
The Wells Fargo Championship gets underway on Thursday, and while we dove deep into the course, players, stats, and more to improve your chances of picking a winner, we know longshot futures aren’t for everyone. So let’s use our FantasyLabs metrics to find a few head-to-head prop bets that stand out this week.
- Keith Mitchell vs. Jason Kokrak
- Phil Mickelson vs. Paul Casey
- Dylan Frittelli vs. Charl Schwartzel
Keith Mitchell (+105) over Jason Kokrak
I love the fact that you can get Mitchell at +105 on this one. When we back-tested the metrics for Quail Hollow, recent Greens in Regulation (GIR), recent birdies and recent par-5 scoring were among those most correlated with success here. Mitchell has the edge over Kokrak in almost all of them, and it’s not particularly close:
Overall, Kokrak is struggling lately, as he’s failed to make the Sunday round in three of his past four tournaments.
Phil Mickelson (+105) over Paul Casey
Let me start by saying that I love Paul Casey. But … I also love data, and I’ll follow the data before I follow my emotions for a player — especially when money is involved. With course history and recent form back-testing so well at Quail Hollow, it leaves me inclined to target Mickelson over Casey. Over Casey’s past four tournaments, he’s hitting just 57.7% of GIR and averaging 11.5 birdies per event. Meanwhile, in Mickelson’s past four tournaments he has hit 68.1% of GIR while averaging 18 birdies per tournament.
Mickelson missed the cut at Quail Hollow last season under harsher conditions for the PGA Championship. That said, in his past six appearances in the Wells Fargo Championship, Phil owns three top-four finishes and has finished inside the top 18 in all but one start. The main thing that could get Mickelson into trouble is if Casey can progress back to his long-term form this week, as the Englishman has hit an exceptional 68.8% of GIR over the past 75 weeks. That said, at plus odds here I’ll take my chances.
Dylan Frittelli (-110) over Charl Schwartzel
This pick is mostly my way of shorting Schwartzel since he has been downright awful of late. He’s missed three straight cuts, and his best finish in his past five tournaments has been a 48th place at WGC-Mexico back in March. Further, in that same time frame, he’s hitting just 50% of GIR, 51.8% of fairways and averaging just 6.5 birdies per tournament while sporting an atrocious 270.2-yard recent Driving Distance. Recent par-4 scoring was another metric that back-tested well here, and Schwartzel is averaging +5.0 average adjusted strokes on par-4s over his past five outings. Frittelli’s recent form has looked considerably better than Schwartzel’s: The South African has hit 62.9% of GIR and averaged 10.5 birdies per tournament, while sporting a recent Driving Distance of 297.9 yards over his past six tournaments.
All odds takes from 5Dimes as of 10 a.m. ET Wednesday.
Pictured above: Keith Mitchell